Geoff Yu, senior strategist at BNY, noted that improving shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz are helping to alleviate supply shortage concerns in global energy markets. Crude shipments from Kuwait and Qatar have reportedly recovered to approximately 70% of their pre-war levels, driving a overall recovery in total Strait of Hormuz maritime traffic and putting downward pressure on crude prices. The restoration of maritime transit reduces the geopolitical risk premium that had previously pushed oil prices higher. As supply constraints ease, commodity traders are adjusting their price expectations lower, which could stabilize energy input costs globally and impact inflation metrics in major consuming nations. Moving forward, market participants will monitor whether shipping volumes can return to 100% capacity and assess how OPEC+ responds to the stabilizing supply conditions. Further stabilization in supply routes is likely to keep Brent crude prices muted in the near term.
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