A report by S&P Global Ratings indicates that Gulf banks have maintained operational stability despite regional conflicts, with funding outflows remaining manageable for now. The agency's base-case scenario assumes the most intense phase of the conflict will last two to four weeks, though prolonged tensions could lead to shifts toward safe-haven assets and potential liquidity pressures. Stress tests show Gulf banks hold sufficient reserves to absorb hypothetical outflows, except in Bahrain and Qatar. However, the long-term impact on asset quality and economic sectors like logistics, tourism, and real estate remains uncertain. For markets, this analysis underscores the resilience of Gulf banking systems amid geopolitical risks. Traders should monitor capital flows, central bank interventions, and sector-specific vulnerabilities as the conflict evolves. The report also highlights the potential for government support in four GCC countries, which could mitigate systemic risks. Investors may need to reassess exposure to consumer-driven industries and regional equities. Looking ahead, the full economic fallout on banks' asset quality may take years to materialize. S&P forecasts possible deterioration in 2026, depending on the conflict's duration. Key watchpoints include deposit outflows, liquidity coverage ratios, and central bank policy responses. Regional investors should evaluate how sectoral weaknesses in real estate and retail might affect portfolio allocations.
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