The European session today features the final Eurozone Q4 GDP report, which is outdated and unlikely to drive significant market movement. Attention is instead on geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, which could impact energy prices and economic data in 2026. In the US session, the focus is on the February Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, with expectations of 55K jobs added (vs. 130K in January) and an unchanged 4.3% unemployment rate. January US Retail Sales data is also on the agenda but is considered less impactful due to its volatility and age. The NFP report could influence the Federal Reserve's policy outlook, especially with Fed officials like Waller signaling potential hawkish shifts if labor data improves. However, markets are currently fixated on the US-Iran conflict and energy prices, which may overshadow the NFP release. Central bank speakers from the ECB and Fed will provide additional insights, with mixed stances expected. For traders, the key takeaway is the interplay between economic data and geopolitical risks. A stronger-than-expected NFP could temporarily boost the USD, but sustained market direction will depend on developments in the US-Iran war. Energy prices and central bank rhetoric will also shape forex and commodity markets. Investors should monitor the NFP report and central bank speeches for short-term trading opportunities.

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