Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has issued a warning that it could block regional oil exports if attacks from the United States and Israel persist. The statement, attributed to the IRGC, emphasized that Tehran alone would determine the timeline for ending the conflict, rejecting external control. The threat comes amid heightened tensions in the Gulf, where oil infrastructure is a critical economic and strategic asset. The IRGC did not specify the exact method or timing of potential disruptions but underscored the gravity of its message. This development could significantly impact global oil markets, which are already sensitive to geopolitical risks. A disruption in Iranian oil exports, which account for a notable share of global supply, could drive prices higher due to fears of reduced availability. Traders and investors may also react to increased volatility in energy markets, with the potential for broader spillovers into equity and currency markets. The US and Israel have not publicly responded to the IRGC’s warning, but any escalation could trigger renewed sanctions or military posturing. For markets, the key focus will be on monitoring diplomatic developments and any signs of military activity in the region. Central banks and policymakers may also reassess their inflation projections if oil prices surge. Gulf investors should consider hedging against energy price swings and diversifying portfolios to mitigate risks from regional instability. The situation underscores the interconnectedness of geopolitical events and financial markets, particularly in energy-dependent economies.

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