تفاصيل الخبر
سيتم نشر تقرير الأجور غير الزراعية لشهر مارس في 3 أبريل 2025، وهو اليوم نفسه لعيد الجمعة العظيمة — يوم يُغلق فيه سوق الأسهم الأمريكي لكن مكتب الإحصاء الأمريكي (__) يبقى مفتوحًا. هذا التداخل النادر يحدث عندما يتطابق يوم الجمعة الثالث بعد تاريخ 12 من الشهر مع عيد الجمعة العظيمة، الذي يقع هذا العام في 3 أبريل. آخر مرة حدث فيها ذلك كانت في 2023، مع حالات سابقة تعود إلى 2021 و2015. يتوقع الخبراء ارتفاعًا في الوظائف إلى 60 ألف وظيفة بعد انخفاض حاد بلغ -92 ألف وظيفة في فبراير. سيؤثر الإعلان بشكل رئيسي على أسواق العقود الآجلة والفوركس، حيث تظل أسواق الأسهم مغلقة. يجب على المتعاملين مراقبة جلسات العقود الآجلة المختصرة في __ للأسهم العالمية والعملات، بالإضافة إلى التقلبات المحتملة في زوجي الدولار الأمريكي. من المهم متابعة توقعات التقرير وردود فعل السوق تجاهها، خاصة في ظل التوترات الجيوسياسية والسياسات النقدية للبنك الفيدرالي. المستثمرون في الخليج سيحتاجون إلى مراقبة التأثير المحتمل على العملات الرئيسية مثل الدولار الأمريكي مقابل الين الياباني.
قد يعني هذا الإعلان تقلبات في أسواق الفوركس والعقود الآجلة، خاصة في زوجي الدولار الأمريكي واليورو. من المحتمل أن يؤثر تقرير الأجور على توقعات السوق للسياسة النقدية الأمريكية، مما يستدعي مراقبة ردود الفعل في الوقت الفعلي.
The March non-farm payrolls report will be released on April 3, 2025, coinciding with Good Friday — a day when U.S. stock markets are closed but the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) remains operational. This rare calendar overlap occurs when the third Friday after the 12th of the month aligns with Good Friday, which this year falls on April 3. The last similar event was in 2023, with previous instances dating back to 2021 and 2015. Consensus forecasts expect a rebound to +60,000 jobs after February’s sharp decline of -92,000. The release will primarily impact futures markets and forex, as equity markets remain closed. Traders should monitor the CME’s abbreviated sessions for equity index futures and the potential for volatility in USD crosses. The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook and geopolitical tensions may also influence market reactions. Investors should watch for deviations from expectations in the employment report and how they interact with ongoing global events.
Tomorrow is one of those rare calendar collisions: the March non-farm payrolls report is released at 8:30 am ET on Good Friday — a day when the stock market is closed.Good Friday has been a NYSE holiday almost every year since 1864. It's the only stock market holiday that isn't also a federal holiday. The date moves around because it's tied to the lunar calendar — and this year it falls on April 3.The BLS releases the employment situation report on the third Friday after the week containing the 12th of the month, which is usually the first Friday of the month. This time, that's also April 3.The last time this happened was 2023, with previous occurrences in 2021, 2015, 2012, 2010, 2007, and 1999.What's open tomorrowThe government is open. Good Friday is not a federal holiday, so the BLS will release the March employment report at 8:30 am ET on schedule. Consensus is for +60,000 jobs after February's -92,000 (see the economic calendar for more).Here's the breakdown:Closed all day: NYSE and Nasdaq cash equities, plus most global exchanges including London, Toronto, Hong Kong, Frankfurt, and Sydney.Open for abbreviated sessions: CME equity index futures will trade briefly with an early close around 9:15 am CT (10:15 am ET), using April 2 settlement prices. CME interest rate, FX, and crypto futures will also run abbreviated sessions with unique settlement procedures. Spot forex trades as normal, as always. Crypto markets are open 24/7, though futures will follow the CME calendar.Bond market: SIFMA recommended a full close on Good Friday for U.S. dollar-denominated fixed income, though the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and banks will be open. FINRA/TRACE will be closed so we won't get a read on bonds.The bottom line: any payroll surprise will channel through futures and FX, though war news is still paramount.A history of Good Friday surprisesBeth Stanton had an excellent thread on X walking through the backstory. Until 1996, the bond industry association (now SIFMA) recommended a full close on Good Friday, even when it coincided with NFP.That was tested in April 1994 when payrolls came in at +456,000 — nearly double the 238,000 forecast. It was ugly. Futures were open and many dealers had staffed their desks anyway.So when it happened again in 1996, the association recommended keeping bonds open until noon. Payrolls printed +140,000 — almost three times the 49,000 consensus — and another sharp selloff followed.However we're now back to a situation where the bond market is closed. Will we get another surprise? This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.
