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يقدم التقرير تحليلًا تقنيًا لزوجات EURUSD و و في ظل بيئة سوقية محفوفة بالمخاطر بسبب التوترات الجيوسياسية في إيران. تراجعت المؤشرات الأمريكية بشكل حاد، حيث سجل ناسداك وسبي 500 وداو جونز انخفاضًا تجاوز 400 نقطة لكل منهما، بينما ارتفعت الأصول الدفاعية مثل النفط الخام والدولار الأمريكي. تراجع زوج EURUSD إلى قرب أدنى مستوياته السنوية عند 1.15764، بينما توقف زوج USDJPY عند مقاومة عند 157.65، وشهد GBPUSD انهيارًا تحت مستويات الدعم الرئيسية قبل أن يعاود الصعود. يركز التحليل على مستويات الأسعار الحاسمة لكل زوج، مع التأكيد على حاجة المشترين إلى استعادة أهداف رئيسية لعكس الاتجاه الهابط. يُعد هذا التحليل التقني ضروريًا للمستثمرين في الأسواق المتقلبة. يُظهر هيمنة الدولار كأصل آمن في ظل عدم اليقين الجيوسياسي تأثيره على التدفقات بين العملات. بالنسبة للمستثمرين في سوق الفوركس، فإن اختبار EURUSD لدعم 1.15764 وصراع GBPUSD حول 1.3324–1.3343 يمثلان نقاط تحول رئيسية. توقف USDJPY عن اختراق 158.23 يشير إلى احتمال تراجع الزخم الصاعد، مما قد يؤثر على استراتيجيات التجارة بالرافعة المالية. يجب على المستثمرين في منطقة الخليج مراقبة هذه الزوجات للحصول على مؤشرات حول الحالة النفسية العامة للأسواق. ارتفاع الدولار المستمر قد يؤثر على العملات المرتبطة به في الخليج، بينما قد تؤثر حركة أسعار النفط (التي ارتفعت 6.3% في هذا السياق) على توازنات التجارة الإقليمية. على المراقبين الانتباه إلى إشارات تأكيدية من اختبارات الدعم في EURUSD ومستويات التصحيح في GBPUSD لفهم استقرار السوق.
The article provides a technical analysis of three major forex pairs following a risk-off market environment triggered by geopolitical tensions in Iran. US equities fell sharply, with the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones dropping over 400 points each, while defensive assets like crude oil and the US dollar gained strength. The EURUSD approached yearly lows near 1.15764, USDJPY stalled near resistance at 157.65, and GBPUSD faced a breakdown below key support levels before rebounding. The analysis highlights critical price levels for each pair, emphasizing the need for buyers to reclaim key targets to reverse the downward trend.
This technical outlook is crucial for traders navigating volatile markets. The USD's dominance amid geopolitical uncertainty underscores its role as a safe-haven asset, impacting cross-currency flows. For forex traders, the EURUSD's proximity to 2026 lows and GBPUSD's battle near 1.3324–1.3343 represent key inflection points. USDJPY's failure to break above 158.23 suggests potential for a pullback, which could affect carry trade strategies.
MENA investors should monitor these pairs for signals on broader market sentiment. A sustained USD rally could pressure Gulf currencies linked to the dollar, while oil price movements (up 6.3% in this context) may influence regional trade balances. Traders should watch for follow-through in EURUSD's support tests and GBPUSD's retracement levels to gauge market stability.
We are now into Day 2 of fully open trading since the war in Iran began, and the tone remains decisively risk-off.US equities are under heavy pressure:Nasdaq: -474 pointsS&P 500: -103 pointsDow: -719 pointsAt the same time, classic defensive flows are in play:Crude oil +6.3%10-year yield +3.4 bps at 4.086%USD higher vs all major currenciesThe dollar is up roughly 0.65% versus the EUR and GBP, and about 0.25% versus the JPY, reinforcing the broader flight-to-safety bid.In the video above, Greg Michalowski walks through the technical outlook for the three major pairs — EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD — focusing on the key levels that will determine whether sellers extend control or buyers can stabilize the move.EURUSD – Testing the yearly lowsThe EURUSD extended lower today and came within seven pips of the 2026 low (1.15764 from mid-January). That proximity alone keeps the downside pressure firmly intact.Although the pair has bounced modestly, it remains below short-term resistance levels. To shift the bias even modestly back toward the buyers, the pair needs to reclaim a key upside target outlined in the video. Until that happens, this remains a trend-like move lower, and rallies are corrective rather than structural.The burden of proof is clearly on the buyers.USDJPY – Momentum stalls near channel resistanceUSDJPY pushed to a new high going back to January 23, but the upside momentum has begun to stall.The pair failed ahead of a topside hourly channel trendline near 158.23Today's high reached 157.96Price has since slipped back below the February high at 157.65That 157.65 level is now a key short-term barometer. The pair is currently hovering just above it as North America gets underway.Holding above keeps buyers in control. A sustained move back below would signal fading upside momentum and give sellers a foothold.GBPUSD – Breakdown and rebound battleThe GBPUSD saw the most aggressive technical damage.Broke below yesterday’s lowBroke below the December 17 swing low at 1.33106Broke below the December 9 low at 1.32867Touched a session low at 1.3263That sequence represents a clear downside extension.However, the pair has since rebounded and now trades near 1.33117, testing:The 38.2% retracement of today’s range near 1.3324A falling 100-hour MA (on the 5-minute chart) near that same zoneJust above sits the 50% midpoint of the day’s range at 1.3343.This 1.3324–1.3343 area is the immediate battleground. If buyers can reclaim that zone, short-term control shifts modestly higher. If sellers defend it, the broader downside bias remains firmly intact.Bottom LineMarkets remain in risk-off mode:Stocks lowerOil sharply higherYields risingDollar broadly strongerFrom a technical perspective, all three major currency pairs are trading at or near pivotal levels. The next few hours will determine whether today becomes stabilization… or continuation.In environments like this, levels matter more than opinions. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
