تفاصيل الخبر
أبقى الاحتياطي الفيدرالي الأمريكي أسعار الفائدة دون تغيير في قراره الأخير، لكن تباين الآراء بين صانعي السياسة ظهر بشكل واضح. اختلف أربعة من أعضاء الاحتياطي: هاماك، لوجان، وكاشكاري عارضوا ميل التيسير بسبب مخاطر التضخم، بينما دعم ميران، وهو من ترشيحات ترامب، خفض أسعار الفائدة. يعكس هذا الانقسام عدم اليقين الذي تواجهه المركزي حول اتجاه السياسة المستقبلية. في الوقت نفسه، أصدرت وزارة المالية اليابانية "فحصًا للسعر" في زوج الدولار/اليين، كإشارة محتملة إلى التدخل لمواجهة ضعف الين. تراجعت قيمة الدولار/اليين بشكل حاد بعد ذلك، حيث أدى ذلك إلى تصفية مراكز قصيرة على الين، ويراقب المتداولون الآن مستوى 156.50 كنقطة محورية. يُضيف تباين الاحتياطي الفيدرالي والمخاطر المتعلقة بالتدخل الياباني تعقيدًا لتطاول الدولار/اليين. يجب على المتداولين مراقبة ما إذا كان الاحتياطي الفيدرالي سيتجه نحو خفض أسعار الفائدة أو يحافظ على السياسة الصارمة، مما قد يؤثر على قوة الدولار. بالنسبة لزوج اليورو/الدولار، تجاوز الزوج مستويات المتوسطات المتحركة المهمة وبدأ اختبار مستويات المقاومة الأعلى، مما يشير إلى ميل صاعد. تدعم نبرة البنك المركزي الأوروبي الأقوى مقارنة بالاحتياطي الفيدرالي أيضًا مكاسب اليورو/الدولار. هذه الديناميكيات تخلق فرصًا للمتداولين في سوق العملات لتوجيه مراكزهم بناءً على قرارات البنوك المركزية ومستويات التحليل الفني. من المهم مراقبة اجتماع الاحتياطي الفيدرالي القادم للحصول على وضوح حول مسار أسعار الفائدة المحتمل والتدخل المحتمل من اليابان. مستويات الدعم 155.50 والمقاومة 157.26 في زوج الدولار/اليين هي نقاط حاسمة لتحديد الاتجاه القصير المدى. قدرة اليورو/الدولار على الحفاظ على مستويات المتوسط المتحرك 200 ساعة ستحدد ما إذا كان الاتجاه الصاعد سيستمر. يجب على المستثمرين في الخليج أيضًا مراقبة كيفية تأثير العوامل الجيوسياسية، مثل التنسيق بين الولايات المتحدة واليابان في استقرار العملة، على تدفقات الأصول عبر الأصول.
قد يعني التباين في قرارات الاحتياطي الفيدرالي وتدخل اليابان على الدولار/اليين أن المتداولين يجب أن يُنصحوا بمراقبة مستويات الدعم والمقاومة المذكورة مثل 155.50 و157.26. من المحتمل أن تؤثر التغيرات في السياسة النقدية على زوج اليورو/الدولار، مما يستدعي مراقبة المتوسطات المتحركة ومستويات المقاومة.
The U.S. Federal Reserve maintained interest rates unchanged in its latest decision, but internal divisions among policymakers were evident. Four Fed officials dissented: Hammack, Logan, and Kashkari opposed the easing bias due to inflation risks, while Miran, a Trump nominee, supported a rate cut. This split highlights the central bank's uncertainty about future policy direction. Meanwhile, the Japanese Ministry of Finance issued a 'rate check' in USDJPY, signaling potential intervention to counter yen weakness. Traders interpreted this as a warning shot, leading to a sharp decline in USDJPY as short yen positions were unwound. The pair is now consolidating near the 156.50 level, a critical technical pivot point.
The Fed's divided stance and Japan's intervention risk add complexity to USDJPY's volatility. Traders must monitor whether the Fed leans toward rate cuts or maintains restrictive policy, which could influence USD strength. For EURUSD, the pair broke above key moving averages and is testing higher resistance levels, suggesting a bullish bias. The ECB's relatively stronger tone compared to the Fed also supports EURUSD gains. These dynamics create opportunities for forex traders to position around central bank policy shifts and technical levels.
Looking ahead, the focus will be on the Fed's next meeting for clarity on rate path adjustments and Japan's potential yen intervention. USDJPY's 155.50 support and 157.26 resistance levels are critical for near-term direction. EURUSD's ability to hold above the 200-hour MA will determine if its bullish trend continues. Traders should also assess how geopolitical factors, such as U.S.-Japan coordination on currency stability, might impact cross-asset flows.
The video above takes a detailed look of the 3 major currency pairs - the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD from a technical perspective. On Wednesday, the Fed kept rates unchanged, but the decision revealed a notable divide beneath the surface. There were four dissenters in what was likely Powell’s final meeting as Chair.Hammack, Logan, and Kashkari pushed back on the easing bias, citing ongoing inflation risks. Miran, the most recent Trump nominee, dissented in favor of a rate cut, reinforcing his more dovish stance. The takeaway is clear: the Fed is increasingly split, with the debate shifting toward what comes next—cuts versus staying restrictive longer.Yesterday’s dominant story, however, came from JPY price action.The Japanese Ministry of Finance conducted a rate check in USDJPY, a classic pre-intervention warning shot. It’s a signal to the market that authorities are watching closely and are prepared to act if needed—without actually deploying reserves. The move marked a shift in how traders must now price in intervention risk, especially with USDJPY pushing toward the 160.00 level, which appears to be a trigger zone.The backdrop matters. Yen weakness has become politically sensitive ahead of elections, as it feeds directly into higher import and food prices, particularly with Japan heavily reliant on energy imports. There was also speculation that U.S. officials may be tolerant of yen strength, adding another layer of complexity.The rate check sparked a sharp move lower in USDJPY, as traders trimmed short yen positions amid uncertainty over whether direct intervention would follow.USDJPY technicalsTechnically, the pair has been active: The price retested the 100-day moving average near 157.26 (high reached 157.32)
Sellers leaned against that level, pushing the price lower
The move extended toward 155.50, the 61.8% retracement of the February rally Since then, the pair has bounced and is now trading around the 50% midpoint near 156.50, which is acting as a key barometer.Levels to watch:Resistance: 157.26 (100-day MA) Support: 155.50 (61.8% retracement) Pivot: 156.50 (50% midpoint) EURUSD technicalsThe EURUSD moved higher yesterday, helped by USD selling and relatively firmer ECB tone. The pair initially broke above the 100-day and 100-hour MAs near 1.1708 Resistance at the 200-hour MA capped gains (a level that stalled rallies on April 22 and 27)
However, after a pullback, buyers stepped back in and pushed the price above the 200-hour MA, keeping the bullish bias intact Today: A dip toward 1.1713 found support
Price has since extended to new weekly highs above 1.1754Upside targets:1.1790 (April swing highs) 1.1823–1.1836 (next key resistance zone)
Above that, the 1.1845 highGBPUSD technicalsGBPUSD followed a similar path but with stronger momentum. The pair based near the 100-day MA at 1.3465 Broke above a key swing area between 1.3575–1.3598, increasing the bullish bias Today: A dip back into that zone held support (low 1.3587)
Buyers stepped in, pushing the pair to new highs at 1.3643, the highest level since February 17 Levels to watch:Support: 1.3575–1.3598 (prior resistance turned support) Next targets: 1.3725–1.3772 Further upside: toward the yearly high near 1.3868Bottom line The Fed is divided, with policy uncertainty rising JPY intervention risk is now a major driver in FX Technical levels are dictating the post-news moves USD weakness stalled as key levels held, keeping two-way risk firmly in play This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
