تفاصيل الخبر
أظهر مؤشر صناعة ISM الأمريكي لشهر فبراير ارتفاعًا إلى 52.4، ما يُشير إلى استمرار النمو الصناعي رغم تراجعه عن 52.6 في يناير. سجلت 7 مكونات، مثل الطلبات الجديدة (55.8) والإنتاج (53.5)، نموًا فوق مستوى 50، بينما تراجعت الوظائف (48.8) والمخزونات (48.8). ارتفع مؤشر الأسعار المدفوعة إلى 70.5، وهو أعلى مستوى منذ أكثر من عام، مما يعكس ضغوط تضخمية جديدة. يعكس التقرير تباطؤًا في وتيرة النمو بسبب ارتفاع التكاليف وضعف الطلب، خاصة في قطاعات النقل والكيماويات. هذا التقرير يُثير مخاوف حول مسار السياسة النقدية الأمريكية، حيث يُرجّح أن يُؤخر ارتفاع الأسعار قرارات خفض الفائدة. سيتابع المتعاملون بيانات التضخم القادمة لتحديد موقف الاحتياطي الفيدرالي، مما قد يؤثر على استقرار الدولار. بالنسبة للمستثمرين في الخليج، فإن التوتر بين تباطؤ النمو والتضخم يُشكل تحديًا للأسواق الناشئة، خاصة مع ارتفاع تكاليف الاستيراد والاعتماد على الدولار في المعاملات. يجب على المستثمرين في منطقة الشرق الأوسط الانتباه إلى البيانات المستقبلية حول مؤشرات الأسعار (CPI/PPI) وتعليقات المسؤولين الأمريكيين حول التضخم. قد تظل العملة الأمريكية متقلبة إذا أشارت المؤشرات إلى استمرار السياسة النقدية الصارمة. كما أن قطاعات التصدير والطاقة في دول الخليج قد تتأثر بارتفاع تكاليف المواد الخام وتباطؤ الطلب العالمي.
The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for February rose to 52.4, slightly above the estimated 51.8 but below the previous month's 52.6. Seven components, including New Orders (55.8) and Production (53.5), remained above the 50 expansion threshold, signaling ongoing growth. However, Employment (48.8) and Inventories (48.8) contracted, while Prices Paid surged to 70.5, the highest in over a year, indicating renewed inflationary pressures. The data highlights a slowdown in growth momentum amid persistent cost pressures and soft demand, particularly in sectors like transportation and chemicals.
This report impacts markets by reinforcing concerns about the Federal Reserve's policy path. While the economy remains in expansion, the sharp rise in input prices and weak employment data could delay rate cuts. Traders will closely monitor upcoming inflation data to assess whether the Fed will maintain a hawkish stance. The mixed signals may also weigh on the U.S. dollar, as inflation risks offset growth optimism.
For global investors, the key takeaway is the tension between slowing growth and inflation. The U.S. economy's resilience in manufacturing contrasts with broader challenges, such as high prices and supply chain bottlenecks. Traders should watch for follow-up data on CPI and PPI, as well as Fed officials' comments on inflation expectations. The USD could remain volatile if policymakers signal prolonged high rates to combat inflation.
Prior month 52.6ISM Manufacturing PMI 52.4 vs 51.8 estimateDETAILS:Manufacturing PMI®: 52.4 vs 52.6 last monthNew Orders: 55.8 vs 57.1 last monthProduction: 53.5 vs 55.9 last monthEmployment: 48.8 vs 48.1 last monthSupplier Deliveries: 55.1 vs 54.4 last monthInventories: 48.8 vs 47.6 last monthCustomers’ Inventories: 38.8 vs 38.7 last monthPrices Paid: 70.5 vs 59.0 last monthBacklog of Orders: 56.6 vs 51.6 last monthNew Export Orders: 50.3 vs 50.2 last monthImports: 54.9 vs 50.0 last monthSummary:7 components were above the 50 expansion level, signaling growth:Manufacturing PMI®New OrdersProductionSupplier DeliveriesPricesBacklog of OrdersImports3 components were below 50, indicating contraction:EmploymentInventoriesCustomers’ Inventories8 components increased vs last month:EmploymentSupplier DeliveriesInventoriesCustomers’ InventoriesPricesBacklog of OrdersNew Export OrdersImports3 components declined vs last month:Manufacturing PMI®New OrdersProductionTakeaway: The ISM details show manufacturing activity still expanding overall (majority above 50), but forward-looking demand components softened, while price pressures reaccelerated sharply. The combination points to slower growth momentum alongside renewed inflation pressures — a mix that could keep policy expectations cautious and markets sensitive to incoming inflation data.What are respondents saying:“Today, American produced commodities like steel and aluminum are the highest priced in the world, by far. Hence, the Section 232 tariff policy is having the exact opposite effect of their intention on an American manufacturer like us: It is raising prices while lowering demand and profitability.” [Transportation Equipment]“Economic activity seems to be also challenging for this year. Some recovery in certain sectors in the economy but still lot of cost pressures and soft demand. Cost discipline is the priority.” [Chemical Products]“January sales continued to provide positive indications for growth opportunities. Data center, health care, and food and beverages remain positive growth areas. We continue to receive price increase notifications from suppliers based on unsupported tariff claims and are expanding corporate staff to support sales growth.” [Chemical Products]“South American instability has begun to be a factor for our suppliers and inventory management.” [Petroleum & Coal Products]“Pricing for outside purchases has stabilized. We are spending significant effort to work with our supply base to mitigate tariff impacts. Backlog is at a healthy level.” [Miscellaneous Manufacturing]“Overall orders and supply footprint are improving. As we review customer demand, we are also taking several categories of established materials and supplies out to RFP for review and cost improvements — in particular, printed circuit assemblies, plastics, sheet metal assemblies and motorized assemblies. This will help ease the burden of tariff and customer impacts as we broaden our supplier base to a more regional footprint.” [Computer & Electronic Products]“Continue to be impacted by tariffs. Seeing metals prices rise too. Business is steady, but domestic growth is slower than expected.” [Computer & Electronic Products]“Business was slow in January. Many orders pulled into end of 2025 to meet revenue goals. Order book is strong going forward.” [Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components]“Tariff policy changes affect total acquisition costs and purchasing source decisions. So far this year, tariff instability still exists. Due to the tariffs, most raw materials used in manufacturing, such as steel and wire, need to be sourced domestically, and the cost keeps going up.” [Machinery]“Business is improving by the week. Backlog is growing, and new opportunities are everywhere. Monthly shipments are still lower than planned, but improving. Over the past five years, we spent thousands trying to attract new employees and had almost zero responses. In the last six months, however, we’ve been able to hire experienced engineers, computer numerical control (CNC) operators, and young people wanting to become CNC machinists.” [Fabricated Metal Products] This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
