تفاصيل الخبر
شهدت الأسواق الآسيوية ارتفاعًا حادًا في أسعار النفط، حيث ارتفع خام غرب تكساس الوسيط (WTI) بنسبة 25% ليصل إلى 113.10 دولارًا للبرميل، وهو أكبر ارتفاع يومي منذ جائحة كورونا. تفاقمت التوترات الجيوسياسية بعد ضرب إسرائيل مواقع تخزين الوقود الإيراني، مما دفع إيران للانتقام بضرب منشآت النفط والسدود. أعاد ترامب التأكيد على أن أسعار النفط ستتراجع بعد تحييد تهديد إيران النووي. في المقابل، سجلت الصين مؤشر التضخم في فبراير 1.3%، بينما بلغ فائض الحساب الجاري في اليابان 94.16 مليار دولار. تراجع الذهب رغم استمرار الصين في شراء الذهب لشهر السادس عشر على التوالي. تهاوى المؤشرات الإقليمية مثل نيكاي والكوسبي، بينما سجل ASX 200 أسوأ يوم منذ 2020. يرتبط ارتفاع النفط بغلق مضيق هرمز، وهو عنق زجاجة حيوي لـ 20 مليون برميل يوميًا. تحذيرات من أن إغلاقًا كاملًا قد يعطل سلاسل التوريد العالمية لأشهر. يسارع التجار إلى تأمين احتياجاتهم من الطاقة، بينما يعزز الدولار الأمريكي مكانته مقابل اليورو. تراجع الذهب رغم ارتفاع مخزون الصين من الذهب، مما يعكس تضارب آراء المستثمرين. تعليقات ترامب حول البرنامج النووي الإيراني تقدم مسارًا محتملًا للتفاوض، رغم استمرار المخاطر الجيوسياسية. للمستثمرين في الخليج، يُنصح بمراقبة تقلبات أسعار النفط والمؤشرات الإقليمية وعائدات السندات الأمريكية. يُعتبر مضيق هرمز واحتمال التصعيد العسكري عوامل رئيسية في الأسابيع المقبلة. سيؤثر استجابة البنوك المركزية للتضخم والصدمات الطاقوية على تشكيل الديناميكيات السوقية.
The Asia-Pacific markets experienced a dramatic surge in oil prices, with WTI crude oil rising 25% to $113.10 per barrel, marking the largest one-day gain since the pandemic. Geopolitical tensions escalated as Israel reportedly struck Iranian fuel storage sites, prompting Iran to retaliate against oil facilities and desalination plants. Trump reiterated his stance that oil prices will drop once Iran's nuclear threat is neutralized. Meanwhile, China's February CPI exceeded expectations at +1.3%, and Japan reported a current account surplus of $94.16 billion. Gold prices fell despite China's 16th consecutive month of gold purchases. Regional indices like the Nikkei and Kospi plummeted, with the ASX 200 hitting its worst day since 2020.
The surge in oil prices is driven by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for 20 million barrels per day. Analysts warn that full shutdowns could disrupt global supply chains for months. Traders are hedging against energy shortages, while the U.S. dollar strengthened against the euro. Gold's decline contrasts with its recent buying spree by China, signaling mixed investor sentiment. Trump's comments about Iran's nuclear program offer a potential off-ramp, though geopolitical risks remain high.
For forex traders, the USD's dominance and EUR's weakness highlight dollar demand amid uncertainty. MENA investors should monitor oil price volatility, regional equity indices, and U.S. Treasury yields. The closure of Hormuz and potential military escalations will be key drivers in the coming weeks. Central banks' responses to inflation and energy shocks will also shape market dynamics.
Trump unhappy about Israel's Iran fuel strikes - reportIran chooses Khamenei's son as new Supreme LeaderChina February CPI +1.3% vs +0.8% expectedJapana January current account surplus 941.6B vs 960B expectedJapanese January labour cash earnings +3.0% vs +2.4% priorTrump: Oil will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is overLindsey Graham: The liberation of Cuba is upon usChina's gold buying spree continues as reserves climb for a 16th straight monthMarkets:WTI crude oil up $22.15 to $113.10 per barrelUS 10-year yields up 6.8 bps to 4.20%Gold down $73 to $5097USD leads, EUR lagsGold down $69 to $5100Nikkei down 7.0%Kospi halted after 8% declineASX 200 in worst day since covid, down 4.3%The weekend war news wasn't good. Strikes on 30 Iranian oil storage depots on the weekend, followed by Iran retaliation at oil sites and water desalination plants are forcing conclusions that this war has spiralled out of control. In addition, Netanyahu, Trump and Hagseth are repeatedly saying that harsher strikes are yet to come.The problem is that 20 million barrels per day of the 105 million burned daily in the world comes through the Strait of Hormuz and it's effectively closed. There is no way to replace that kind of production and it appears to be worsening with Iraq, Kuwait and other shutting in major supplies as there are no ships to retrieve them. If full shutdowns occur, it could take some time to restart and the oil market is also sensing that.In any case, it set off a rush to secure oil today or hedge needs. It was entirely one way with oil breaking the 24% one-day record gain from near the bottom in covid. It rose as much as 30% and is currently sitting at 25%. Trump tweeted about oil prices, saying they will rapidly come down after Iran abandon's nuclear weapons.The Trump message I think is notable because abandoning nuclear weapons is an off-ramp for Iran, and something they had previously offered in negotiations. If Trump is framing that as the goal -- rather than 'unconditional surrender' as he did on Friday, then there might be a path to a ceasefire.Short term oil prices, which will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over, is a very small price to pay for U.S.A., and World, Safety and Peace. ONLY FOOLS WOULD THINK DIFFERENTLY! President DJTIt's all guessing though now and -- clearly -- no one is taking the other side of the oil trade. Every other market is an offshoot of oil, natural gas and the macro effects of losing so much of it. Major importers like Japan and Korea are seeing massive pain in their equity markets, which were the darlings of the world for the past year. All eyes are on the TACO trade, which is feeling like it could come sooner than the 4-5 week war timeline Trump initially set. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.
