تقرير خاص بأسواق الفوركس في أمريكا: مزاج خطر يرفع الأسهم إلى الأرقام القياسية والدولار الأضعف

تفاصيل الخبر

شهدت جلسة أمريكا الشمالية ارتفاعًا في مزاج المخاطرة حيث أغلق مؤشر __ و& 500 عند مستويات قياسية، مدفوعين بتفاؤل دبلوماسي متجدد بين الولايات المتحدة وإيران. تفاعل الأسواق إيجابيًا مع تقارير عن محادثات محتملة تشمل مبعوثين أمريكيين وممثلين إيرانيين، مع دور الوسيط من باكستان. ضعف الدولار الأمريكي أمام العملات الرئيسية بسبب تحسن المزاج الخطر، بينما تراجعت أسعار النفط قليلاً. البيانات الاقتصادية، بما في ذلك تحسن غير متوقع في ثقة المستهلك من جامعة ميشيغان وبيانات مختلطة عن مبيعات التجزئة في كندا، ساهمت في خلفية مختلطة للأسواق. تحول المزاج نحو المخاطرة مهم للمستثمرين، حيث يضغط على الدولار ويُعزز الأسهم. قرارات البنوك المركزية القادمة ونتائج الشركات من قطاع التكنولوجيا الكبيرة الأسبوع المقبل قد تزيد من تقلبات الأسواق. تطورات المحادثات الأمريكية الإيرانية، رغم أنها ما زالت غير مؤكدة، تُسعر في الأسواق كعامل تهدئة للتوترات الجيوسياسية، مما يقلل من مكافآت المخاطر الجيوسياسية. يُنصح المستثمرين في الخليج بمراقبة توقيت المحادثات الأمريكية الإيرانية، التي قد تُ__ حتى الاثنين، وقرارات الاحتياطي الفيدرالي بعد قرار وزارة العدل الأمريكية إنهاء التحقيق ضد جيروم باول. بالنسبة للمتداولين في سوق الفوركس، ضعف الدولار أمام العملات الرئيسية مثل اليورو والكندي، و في أسعار النفط ستكون عوامل فنية واقتصادية رئيسية يجب مراقبتها.

قد يعني تحسن المزاج الخطر ضعف الدولار الأمريكي أمام العملات الرئيسية مثل اليورو والكندي، مما يستدعي مراقبة زوجي USD/EUR وUSD/CAD. كما أن تطورات المحادثات الأمريكية الإيرانية قد تؤثر على أسعار النفط، مما يستلزم مراقبة تقلبات النفط كعامل مؤثر على الأسواق الناشئة.

The North American session saw a surge in risk appetite as the NASDAQ and S&P 500 closed at record highs, driven by renewed diplomatic optimism between the U.S. and Iran. Markets reacted positively to reports of potential talks involving U.S. envoys and Iranian officials, with Pakistan playing a mediating role. The U.S. Dollar weakened across major pairs amid improved risk sentiment, while oil prices eased slightly. Economic data, including stronger-than-expected UMich consumer sentiment and mixed retail sales in Canada, added to the mixed market backdrop.

The shift toward risk-on dynamics is critical for traders, as it pressures the USD and boosts equities. Central banks' upcoming decisions and corporate earnings from Big Tech firms next week could amplify market volatility. The U.S.-Iran diplomatic developments, though still uncertain, are being priced into markets as a de-escalation factor, reducing geopolitical risk premiums.

Investors should monitor the timing of U.S.-Iran negotiations, which may now be delayed until Monday, and the Fed's regulatory developments following the DOJ's decision to drop its probe into Jerome Powell. For forex traders, the USD's weakness against majors like EUR and CAD, along with oil price fluctuations, will be key technical and fundamental factors to track.

The NASDAQ and S&P indices close at record levelsMeeting between US and Iran may not take place until MondayGlobal Central Banks decisions highlight next week's calendar: Market Volatility AheadEarnings next week: Big Tech takes center stageTrump sends WItkopf and Kushner for talks with Iran. Vance is not goingUS Dept of Justice drops probe of Jerome PowellUMich April final consumer sentiment 49.8 vs 48.0 expectedIran parliamentary speaker Ghalibaf has resigned from negotiations - Iran mediaCanada February retail sales +0.7% vs +0.9% expectedinvestingLive European FX news wrap: Risk sentiment improves on expected US-Iran talksRisk mood picks up on murmurs about US-Iran talksThe North American session leaned firmly toward a risk-on tone, with equities pushing higher, oil easing, and yields drifting modestly lower. The backdrop for the move was driven largely by renewed diplomatic momentum, as talks between the U.S. and Iran appear to be gaining traction- with Pakistan playing a central role. While headlines throughout the day were at times inconsistent and even contradictory, the broader narrative pointed toward re-engagement rather than escalation.U.S. envoy Witkoff and Jared Kushner are reportedly en route, while Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi is also expected to be in the region. Current indications suggest that all parties may first meet separately with Pakistani officials, with the possibility of more direct engagement emerging as late as Monday. Markets are clearly choosing to focus on the potential for de-escalation, and that optimism helped extend the rally in U.S. equities.That optimism translated into record-setting performance on Wall Street. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 closed at all-time highs, with the S&P rising 0.80% and the NASDAQ surging 1.63%. Leadership once again came from mega-cap tech, with Nvidia, Alphabet, and Amazon all finishing at record levels. Meanwhile, Intel stole the spotlight with a staggering gain of over 23%. The turnaround in Intel highlights just how quickly sentiment can shift—what was recently an avoided name is now being embraced, even at elevated valuations near an 80x forward P/E. It’s a reminder that markets don’t wait for perfection—they anticipate it. It is either that, or the markets are inefficient and subject wild irrational moves at times. Looking ahead, earnings will take center stage next week and could inject fresh volatility. Wednesday features reports from Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft—a heavyweight lineup that will test the sustainability of the current rally. On Thursday, Apple, Caterpillar, and Merck follow, adding further depth across both tech and industrial sectors.In the fixed income space, yields edged lower but remain within recent ranges. The 2-year yield declined by 4 basis points to 3.784%, while the 10-year yield slipped 1.7 basis points to 4.305%. Despite today’s dip, yields still moved higher on the week, with the 10-year up 5 basis points and the 2-year rising 7.9 basis points. Attention now shifts to the Federal Reserve, with the FOMC set to meet next Wednesday. Expectations are firmly anchored for no change in rates, with the current target range centered around 3.75%. The focus will instead be on guidance and tone, particularly as markets weigh geopolitical risks against easing inflation pressures.In the FX market, the U.S. dollar weakened as traders leaned into the improving risk backdrop and the prospect of reduced geopolitical tension. Lower oil prices and expectations of softer inflation down the road also contributed to the move. Commodity and growth-sensitive currencies led the gains, with the NZD and GBP each rising around 0.50%. The EUR advanced 0.32%, while the AUD gained 0.34%, reflecting a broader shift away from defensive positioning.Oil prices told a slightly more nuanced story. WTI crude for June delivery fell 0.87% to $95, while July crude dropped 0.74% to $90.15, reflecting optimism around supply stability if tensions ease. However, Brent crude painted a more cautious picture, rising $1.11 (1.08%) to $106.20—suggesting that not all market participants are fully convinced that risks have been removed.Bottom line: Markets are leaning into a more optimistic geopolitical narrative, driving equities to record highs and pressuring the dollar. However, with major earnings, a Fed decision, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty ahead, the current calm may prove fragile. This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.