تفاصيل الخبر
تراجعت أسعار النفط الخام إلى 80.75 دولارًا، بانخفاض 4.87%، مُخترقةً مستويات الدعم المهمة مثل المتوسط المتحرك لـ 100 ساعة (86.71 دولار) والمتوسط المتحرك لـ 100 يوم (86.63 دولار) والمنطقة المتذبذبة بين 85.45 و86.35 دولار. هذا الهبوط يُعيد تشكيل التوازن الفني نحو الاتجاه الهابط، مع تركيز المراقبة على مستوى 77.57 دولار كهدف محتمل. على الصعيد الأساسي، تشير زيادة المعروض العالمي وفتح مضيق هرمز ورفع العقوبات عن إيران إلى زيادة في المعروض، مما يدعم الرؤية السلبية. ومع ذلك، فإن أي تصعيد في التوترات الجيوسياسية قد يعكس الاتجاه، كما حدث خلال النزاع بين الولايات المتحدة وإيران في شباط/فبراير-آذار/مارس 2020. تؤثر هذه التطورات على الأسهم المرتبطة بالطاقة والعملات المرتبطة بالسلع، خاصة في الخليج حيث يُعد النفط المصدر الرئيسي للتصدير. يجب على المتعاملين مراقبة النطاق 85.45-86.71 دولار كمقاومة محتملة، حيث يُعتبر اختراق مستمر فوق هذا المستوى مؤشرًا على تغيير في الزخم. تراجع أسعار البنزين من ذروته في أيار/مايو عند 4.56 دولار إلى 4.06 دولار يعكس انخفاض الطلب مع تباطؤ الاقتصادات. للمستثمرين في الخليج، يشير الوضع الفني السلبي والتطورات الأساسية إلى ضرورة الحذر في استثمارات قطاع الطاقة. من المهم مراقبة استقرار مضيق هرمز وقرارات منظمة أوبك+ وانتاج النفط الصخري في الولايات المتحدة. الهبوط المستمر تحت 73.42 دولار (متوسط 200 يوم) قد يُثير مخاطر هبوط أكبر، بينما ارتداد فوق 85.45 دولار سيختبر صلابة الرؤية السلبية.
من المحتمل أن يواصل النفط الخام الاتجاه الهابط إذا بقي دون مستوى المقاومة عند 85.45-86.71 دولار، مما يُشير إلى ضرورة مراقبة هذه المنطقة كمقياس لصحة الاتجاه. يُنصح بمراقبة مستوى 77.57 دولار كهدف محتمل، حيث قد يؤدي اختراقه إلى تعميق الهبوط.
The price of crude oil fell to $80.75, down 4.87%, breaking below key support levels including the 100-hour and 100-day moving averages and a swing area between $85.45 and $86.35. This breakdown shifts the technical bias to the downside, with the $77.57 level now in focus as the next potential support target. Fundamentally, increased global supply, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and potential Iranian sanctions relief are expected to add barrels to the market, reinforcing the bearish outlook. However, renewed geopolitical tensions could reverse this trend, as demonstrated by the sharp price spike during the U.S.-Iran conflict in February-March 2020.
The decline in crude oil prices impacts energy-linked equities and commodity-linked currencies, particularly in the Gulf where oil is a primary export. Traders should monitor the $85.45-$86.71 resistance cluster for signs of a reversal, as a sustained break above this level would signal a shift in momentum. Gasoline prices have also declined from a May peak of $4.56 to $4.06, reflecting reduced demand amid economic slowdowns and seasonal factors.
For Gulf investors, the current bearish technical setup and supply-side fundamentals suggest caution in energy sector investments. Key watchpoints include the Strait of Hormuz's stability, OPEC+ production decisions, and U.S. shale output trends. A sustained move below $73.42 (200-day MA) could trigger further downside risk, while a rebound above $85.45 would test the resilience of the bearish thesis.
The price of crude oil is settling at $80.75. That is down $-4.13 or -4.87%. The fall to the downside took the price away from a key cluster of resistance defined by: 100 hour moving average at $86.71100 day moving average at $86.63Swing area between $85.45 and $86.35That area between $85.45 and $86.71 served as a key support zone for much of the period following the start of the U.S.-Iran conflict (red numbered circles). Now that the price has broken below that floor, the zone becomes an important resistance area. If the bearish trend is to remain intact, sellers would not want to see crude oil climb back above that resistance cluster anytime soon.Fundamentally, the backdrop has shifted toward a more bearish outlook. Expectations for increased global supply, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and the potential easing of sanctions on Iran should all work to add barrels back into the market and weigh on prices. As a result, the path of least resistance currently appears to be to the downside.The primary risk to that view is a renewed escalation in the conflict. Any breakdown in the agreement, renewed military action, or another closure of the Strait of Hormuz could quickly reintroduce a geopolitical risk premium and send prices sharply higher. It is worth remembering that crude oil was trading at just $67.04 on February 27, the day before the war began, underscoring how much of the previous rally was driven by supply disruption fears.On the downside, getting below $77.57 would have traders looking toward the 200 day moving average at $73.42. Below that and traded start to target the February 27 closing level of $67.04 as a target.The price of gas is $4.06 down from around $4.56 high. The progression of price from the start of the war: February 27: $2.98 per gallon (pre-war)
March 26: $3.98 per gallon
Early April: $4.16 per gallon
Mid-May peak: Above $4.50 per gallon nationally
Recent high: About $4.56 per gallon in May before beginning to decline This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
