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أبقى مؤشر التقدم في أستراليا من بنك ويستباك ومدينة ملبورن على مستواه عند +0.08% في فبراير 2026، دون تغيير عن يناير لكنه أقل من +0.13% المسجل في سبتمبر 2025. يشير المؤشر، الذي يتنبأ بأنشطة اقتصادية خلال 3-9 أشهر قادمة، إلى أن النمو ما زال فوق المتوسط لكنه يفقد الزخم بسبب ضغوط السوق المالية، بما في ذلك تراجع مساهمة مؤشر S&P/ASX 200. دعمت أسعار السلع المرتفعة وزيادة ساعات العمل المؤشر جزئياً. يتوقع ويستباك أن يتباطأ الناتج المحلي الإجمالي إلى 2.0% في 2026 مقارنة بـ 2.5% في 2025، مرجعاً زيادات الفائدة من قبل بنك أستراليا الاحتياطي والصراعات في الشرق الأوسط كعوامل رئيسية. من الناحية الاقتصادية، يعكس تراجع مساهمة مؤشر S&P/ASX 200 ضغوطاً على المعنويات الاستثمارية، مما يستدعي مراقبة قرارات السياسة النقدية لبنك أستراليا واتجاهات أسعار السلع. قد تؤثر ارتفاع تكاليف الطاقة والمخاطر الجيوسياسية على الثقة في الأعمال والاستهلاك. بالنسبة للمستثمرين في منطقة الخليج، قد يؤثر تباطؤ النمو الأسترالي على أسعار السلع، مما يُثير تأثيرات على قطاعات اقتصادية مرتبطة بالسلع في المنطقة. يُظهر المؤشر تحولاً نحو التوازن في الاقتصاد الأسترالي، مع ميل متزايد نحو التباطؤ. من الضروري مراقبة زيادات الفائدة القادمة من بنك أستراليا وتطورات الصراعات في الشرق الأوسط. قد تؤثر هذه العوامل على تدفق الاستثمار الأجنبي المباشر والطلب على السلع الأولية، مما يُثير تأثيرات على الأسواق المالية الخليجية.
Australia’s Westpac–Melbourne Institute Leading Index held steady at +0.08% in February 2026, unchanged from January but down from +0.13% in September 2025. The index, which forecasts economic activity three to nine months ahead, indicates growth remains slightly above trend but is losing momentum due to financial market pressures, including a weakening S&P/ASX 200. Higher commodity prices and increased hours worked partially offset declines in equity markets. Westpac forecasts GDP growth to slow to 2.0% in 2026 from 2.5% in 2025, citing Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate hikes and the Middle East conflict as key headwinds. Tightening financial conditions and global uncertainties are expected to further dampen business and consumer confidence.
For markets, the weakening contribution of the ASX 200 signals potential drag on the index, affecting investor sentiment. Traders should monitor RBA policy decisions and commodity price trends, as elevated energy costs and geopolitical risks could amplify volatility. The slowdown in Australia’s growth trajectory may also influence global trade dynamics, particularly for commodity-dependent economies.
The outlook underscores a shift toward moderation in the Australian economy. Investors should watch for further RBA rate hikes and the evolving impact of the Middle East conflict. For MENA markets, the slowdown could indirectly affect commodity-linked sectors and global risk appetite, with implications for regional equity and forex markets.
Australia’s leading index holds just above trend, but momentum is fading as headwinds build.Summary:Westpac–Melbourne Institute Leading Index held at +0.08% in February (unchanged from January)Down from +0.13% in September, signalling moderating momentumGrowth remains slightly above trend but losing paceFinancial components (ASX cooling) offset by commodities and hours workedRBA rate hikes and Middle East conflict expected to weigh furtherWestpac sees GDP slowing to ~2.0% in 2026 (from 2.5% in 2025)Australia’s growth outlook is showing early signs of softening, with the Westpac–Melbourne Institute Leading Index holding steady at +0.08% in February on a six-month annualised basis, unchanged from January but down from stronger readings late last year.The index, which provides a guide to economic activity three to nine months ahead, suggests that momentum remains slightly above trend in early 2026. However, the modest pace of growth and recent trajectory point to a gradual loss of momentum as headwinds begin to build.The current reading marks a step down from +0.13% recorded in September, with the moderation largely driven by developments in financial markets. In particular, the contribution from the S&P/ASX 200 has weakened significantly, shifting from a positive +0.19 percentage points contribution to broadly neutral. Forward signals suggest equities may soon become a drag on the index, reflecting softer market sentiment and tighter financial conditions.Partially offsetting this has been support from higher commodity prices and stronger hours worked, which have helped keep the index in positive territory. However, these supports may prove insufficient as broader macro pressures intensify.Westpac expects the combination of recent interest rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia and the economic fallout from the Middle East conflict to weigh more heavily on activity in the months ahead. Higher borrowing costs are already beginning to constrain demand, while elevated energy prices and global uncertainty are likely to dampen both business and consumer confidence.As a result, Westpac forecasts Australia’s GDP growth to slow to around 2.0% in 2026, down from 2.5% in 2025, a pace considered below trend for the economy. While early signals of this slowdown are evident in the February reading, the impact is expected to become more pronounced in coming months as policy tightening and external shocks fully feed through.In the current environment, the Leading Index underscores a key shift: while the Australian economy has remained resilient, the balance of risks is tilting toward slower growth. With financial conditions tightening and global uncertainties rising, the outlook is increasingly one of moderation rather than expansion. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
