تفاصيل الخبر
شهدت الأسواق تفاعلاً متوقعاً في أول يوم تداول بعد الحرب مع إيران، حيث ارتفعت أسعار النفط 8% نتيجة الهجمات والانتقام الواسع. أشار الرئيس ترامب إلى أن الحرب قد تمتد 4-5 أسابيع، مما قلل من زخم الدولار الأمريكي، بينما ضعف الين كملاذ آمن بسبب مخاوف الطاقة. عادت عملات مثل الأسترالي والكندي إلى الارتفاع بفعل ارتفاع السلع، بينما ارتفع الذهب أولًا ثم تراجع. المفاجأة الحقيقية كانت في سندات الخزانة الأمريكية، حيث ارتفعت عائدات 10 سنوات 8 نقاط أساس إلى 4.04% رغم التراجعات المسبقة. من الناحية التقنية، يُعد ارتفاع العائدات فوق 4% مؤشرًا إيجابيًا محدودًا، مع ظهور نمط يوم خارجي كبير. يراقب المحللون عن كثب ما إذا كانت العائدات ستكسر 4.10%، مما قد يؤكد قاعًا ويُشير إلى تداولات في نطاق محدد. بالنسبة للمستثمرين في الخليج، فإن ارتفاع أسعار النفط وال ếوَّات في سوق السندات تُقدِّم فرصة ومخاطر. إذ قد تزيد أسعار النفط الخام من عائدات صادرات الطاقة، لكنها قد تزيد الضغوط التضخمية. يجب على المتعاملين في منطقة الخليج مراقبة مدة الصراع وردود فعل البنوك المركزية وتطور توقعات التضخم العالمية في الأسابيع المقبلة. التطورات في سوق السندات الأمريكية تُظهر أهمية مراقبة مستويات التقنية الرئيسية، بينما تظل مخاطر الين والذهب مفتوحة. بالنسبة للمستثمرين في السوق الخليجي، فإن تأثير أسعار النفط على الاقتصادات المحلية والأسواق العالمية سيكون محور الاهتمام، خاصة مع استمرار التوترات الجيوسياسية.
Markets reacted predictably to the initial day of trading following the Iran war, with oil prices surging 8% amid broad attacks and retaliations. President Trump's remarks about a 4-5 week war timeline tempered the US dollar's rally, while the yen underperformed as a safe haven amid energy concerns. Commodity-linked currencies like AUD and CAD rebounded quickly, and gold initially spiked before retreating. The unexpected development was the sharp rise in US 10-year bond yields, which climbed 8 bps to 4.04% despite earlier declines. This reversal defied expectations and signals potential inflation risks if oil prices remain elevated.
The bond market's technical rebound above 4% is a modest bullish sign, with a large outside day pattern observed. Analysts are closely monitoring whether yields can break 4.10%, which could confirm a bottom and shift the market into a range-bound phase. For traders, the interplay between geopolitical tensions, energy prices, and bond yields will be critical in the coming days. The yen's weakness and gold's volatility also highlight evolving risk dynamics in the post-conflict environment.
For Gulf investors, the sustained oil price rally and bond market volatility present both opportunities and risks. Higher crude prices could boost regional energy exports but may also increase inflationary pressures. The technical outlook for US bonds suggests caution, with key levels to watch for potential trend confirmation. MENA traders should focus on the duration of the conflict, central bank responses, and how global inflation expectations evolve in the coming weeks.
When I survey the scene in markets after one day of post-Iran war trading, there isn't much surprising given the news.Naturally, oil rallied and the 8% climb is about what I would have expected given the broad attack and retaliation. A critical detail shortly after the war yesterday was Trump touting a 4-5 week war, which helped everyone to put it into perspective. Now that's not exactly written in stone so you have to qualify the chance that it escalates (as war often does).Given that, the strength of the US dollar rally was tempered. Yes, we saw some weakness in the euro given the oil and natural gas risks but the overall moves were moderate. I would have expected more yen strength but it lagged on energy worries and that's a worrisome signal for the yen in general as it loses the traditional safe haven bid.AUD and CAD quickly rebounded on higher commodity prices, which I also didn't find surprising. Gold rallied hard at first but profit taking hit and it fell back to unchanged. I would tend to think that gold will continue to be bid as long as the conflict continues but we're past the seasonal tailwinds and there are downside risks if/when the war ends.The surprise for me was bonds. US 10-year yields finished 8 bps higher on the day to 4.04% after falling below the big figure late last week. Some of that is profit taking as the war doesn't look too crazy but I'm surprised by the quick turnaround.Technically, the bounced back above 4% is modestly bullish. It's a big outside day and it has backing with oil prices likely to cause inflation worries (if crude stays higher). I will be watching carefully in the days ahead to see if it can test and break 4.10%. If so, that could confirm a bottom in yields and (at least) indicate a range trade going forward, until the outlook for the economy clears. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.
