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Rabobank has analyzed the recent US military strikes on Iran as part of a strategic 'Grand Macro Strategy' under Trumpism, aiming to control critical raw materials and energy flows that China heavily depends on. The report highlights how the US is leveraging its energy dominance, particularly in oil and gas, to counterbalance China's growing economic influence. This strategy reflects a broader geopolitical approach to reshape global supply chains and reduce China's access to vital resources. For markets, this development introduces heightened geopolitical risk, which could impact energy prices and global trade dynamics. Traders should monitor how tensions between the US and China evolve, as they may influence currency valuations, particularly the USD, and commodity markets. The US's focus on energy security could also drive policy shifts affecting global energy markets. Looking ahead, investors need to watch for further US actions targeting China's energy supply chains and their implications for international trade. Central banks' responses to energy price volatility and potential sanctions on Chinese energy imports will be critical. Additionally, the interplay between US-China relations and energy markets could create opportunities or risks in forex and commodity trading.
