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Homayoun Falakshahi of Kpler stated that the initial rise in oil prices to $80 per barrel was anticipated due to escalating geopolitical tensions in the region. However, he expects prices to retreat to $75 by March 6, as the market remains bearish in the medium term. The sharp decline in eastbound shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, with only three tankers recorded on March 1 compared to 15-18 in late February, highlights operational disruptions. Kpler's analysis suggests that a US military response targeting Iranian facilities could ease supply concerns, though the OPEC+ supply surplus continues to cap price volatility. For traders, the near-term volatility presents both risks and opportunities. A sustained closure of the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a sharp price spike, but Kpler's base-case scenario assumes a rapid reopening by March 2-3. The interplay between geopolitical risks and OPEC+ production decisions will be critical for price direction. Traders should monitor US-Iran developments and OPEC+ compliance with output cuts. The sharp slowdown in oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz—currently at 2.81 million barrels per day, 86% below the 2026 average—underscores the fragility of global oil flows. MENA investors should watch for updates on tanker movements and potential signal disruptions in AIS tracking data. The market's reliance on geopolitical stability and OPEC+ policy makes this a high-impact event for energy markets.
