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Standard Chartered economists Dan Pan and Steve Englander highlighted that recent Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data aligns with weaker-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) figures in late 2025. This softness is attributed to the temporary effects of a government shutdown and layoffs at DOGE, a major tech firm. The QCEW data, considered a leading indicator for NFP, suggests a moderation in job creation, which could signal a slowdown in the U.S. labor market.
For forex traders, this development may temper expectations of aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes, potentially weakening the U.S. dollar against majors like the euro and yen. The NFP report is a critical barometer for Fed policy, and softer readings could shift market focus toward dovish central bank rhetoric. Traders should monitor upcoming NFP releases and Fed speeches for further clues on monetary policy direction.
The implications extend to global markets, as a weaker dollar could boost emerging market currencies and commodities priced in USD. Gulf investors with exposure to U.S. equities or dollar-denominated assets may see mixed outcomes. Key watchpoints include the next NFP report on January 5, 2026, and the Fed’s January policy meeting for guidance on rate trajectory.
