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Standard Chartered analysts Edward Lee and Jonathan Koh predict the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) will steepen the SGD Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER) slope by 50 basis points in April 2025. This move would partially reverse earlier easing measures implemented in the first half of 2025 while maintaining the existing policy band. The forecast reflects confidence in Singapore's economic resilience amid global uncertainties, with MAS likely prioritizing inflation control and export competitiveness.
For forex markets, this tightening signal could strengthen the SGD against major currencies, particularly the USD, as tighter monetary policy typically boosts currency demand. Traders should monitor MAS's quarterly policy reviews and economic data releases for confirmation. The unchanged policy band suggests a measured approach, balancing growth and inflation risks.
Investors in the Gulf and MENA region may see implications for trade and investment flows with Singapore, a key regional hub. The SGD's potential strength could affect import costs and corporate earnings for Gulf firms operating in Singapore. Key watchpoints include Q1 2025 GDP data and MAS's communication on inflation trends.
