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Commerzbank analyst Antje Praefcke has downplayed the likelihood of an imminent rate cut by the Swedish Riksbank, citing persistent below-target inflation as a key factor. She anticipates inflation will remain subdued, reducing pressure on the central bank to ease monetary policy in the near term. This assessment aligns with broader economic uncertainties, including global trade tensions and weak energy prices, which could further delay policy normalization. The Riksbank’s cautious stance has significant implications for the Swedish krona (SEK) and related forex markets. A delayed rate cut would likely support the SEK’s stability against majors like the euro and dollar, particularly as investors reassess risk appetite amid mixed global economic signals. Traders should monitor inflation data and Riksbank communication for clues on future policy shifts. For MENA investors, the SEK’s trajectory could impact cross-currency trades involving the krona, especially in energy and commodity-linked sectors. A stable SEK might also influence Gulf-based portfolios with exposure to Nordic equities or Swedish corporate bonds. Key watchpoints include upcoming Riksbank meetings and regional inflation trends.
