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ING economist Adam Antoniak forecasts the National Bank of Poland (NBP) will maintain its key policy rate at 3.75% during the 2 June meeting and beyond. This expectation stems from May’s consumer price index (CPI) data, which unexpectedly declined and remained within the central bank’s target range. The cooling inflation reduces pressure for rate hikes, stabilizing the Polish zloty (PLN) and easing concerns about tighter monetary policy.
For forex markets, this signals a pause in tightening cycles, which could support the zloty against major currencies like the euro and dollar. Traders may focus on the NBP’s forward guidance for clues about future rate decisions, particularly if inflation trends persist. A stable rate environment also benefits Polish exports by keeping the currency from appreciating too rapidly.
Looking ahead, investors should monitor upcoming CPI releases and NBP statements for signs of policy shifts. If inflation continues to decelerate, the bank might consider rate cuts later in the year. However, any unexpected rise in inflation could reverse this outlook, prompting volatility in the zloty.
