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Commodity strategists at TD Securities have reaffirmed their bullish outlook on global crude oil, highlighting that tight market fundamentals continue to underpin prices. Brent crude remains elevated due to a combination of constrained global supplies and heightened geopolitical friction around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for international energy shipments. The ongoing geopolitical risk premium is playing a decisive role in supporting energy markets. Potential disruptions in the Persian Gulf threaten a significant portion of global daily oil supply, making short positions in crude highly risky for traders. Furthermore, strong physical demand and limited excess production capacity globally leave little buffer against supply shocks. Moving forward, market participants must monitor shipping routes and diplomatic responses in the Middle East for any signs of de-escalation or disruption. If regional tensions persist or intensify, Brent crude could test higher resistance levels, directly influencing global inflationary pressures and central bank monetary policy expectations.
