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MUFG analyst Lee Hardman notes that Brent crude briefly surged past $82 before retreating below $80, driven by concerns over Middle East supply disruptions. The move reflects heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil transit chokepoint. Traders are closely monitoring potential military escalations or diplomatic developments in the region, which could disrupt 20% of global oil exports. The market's reaction underscores the sensitivity of oil prices to regional instability, with technical indicators showing mixed signals as buyers and sellers jockey for position. Analysts warn that prolonged uncertainty could lead to sustained volatility, especially if OPEC+ fails to balance production cuts with demand recovery. Key watchpoints include US-Iran relations and potential sanctions on Iranian oil exports.
