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Rabobank analyst Michael Every notes a significant surge in oil prices ahead of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony. Prices initially rose 9% before climbing an additional 2.5% to $85 per barrel. The rally is attributed to renewed concerns over geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil transit chokepoint, and expectations of tighter supply dynamics. Market participants are also factoring in potential Fed policy shifts amid inflationary pressures.
This price movement highlights the sensitivity of energy markets to both geopolitical risks and central bank policy signals. Traders are closely monitoring how the Fed’s stance on inflation and interest rates might influence global liquidity and commodity demand. The Hormuz risk, combined with OPEC+ production discipline, adds further volatility to oil markets, making it a key asset class for short-term speculation.
Looking ahead, the upcoming CPI data and Powell’s testimony could trigger further price swings. Investors should watch for technical resistance levels around $85–$90 and assess whether the rally sustains momentum. Geopolitical developments in the Middle East and OPEC+ policy updates will also shape the trajectory of oil prices in the coming weeks.
