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Oil prices retreated from earlier gains, with US crude falling to $76 per barrel as the International Energy Agency (IEA) hinted at releasing record strategic reserves. While the exact volume remains undisclosed, the move signals potential oversupply concerns in the energy market. The development has paused momentum in commodity markets, with traders shifting focus to the upcoming US CPI data for inflation clues. The IEA's intervention could weigh on oil prices in the short term, especially if reserve releases materialize. The US CPI report will be critical for assessing Federal Reserve policy direction. A higher-than-expected reading could accelerate rate hikes, strengthening the USD and pressuring oil prices further. Conversely, weaker inflation might ease market anxiety. For Gulf investors, the interplay between oil prices and USD movements directly impacts energy-linked assets and currency valuations. The IEA's reserve strategy also raises questions about global energy security and OPEC's response. Markets are now in a wait-and-see mode ahead of the US CPI release. Traders should monitor IEA's reserve announcements, OPEC+ production decisions, and Fed officials' inflation comments. The $75-78 range could act as key support/resistance for crude. For Gulf markets, the USD's performance against the Saudi riyal and energy sector equities will be closely watched as oil price volatility translates into regional financial flows.
