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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) anticipates a gradual improvement in global growth rates in 2024, with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries leading the recovery. This growth is attributed to the expansion of non-oil sectors and increased oil production. IMF's Middle East and Central Asia Director, Jihad Azour, highlighted that regional economic prospects depend on global transformations and risks, including geopolitical tensions and inflation control measures from 2023. While some countries show improved conditions, others remain vulnerable due to conflicts.
For markets, the GCC's growth trajectory could influence global energy prices and investor sentiment. The IMF's forecast suggests a shift toward more accommodative monetary policies as inflation eases, potentially boosting equity markets in the region. However, geopolitical uncertainties and uneven recovery across countries pose risks to sustained growth.
The establishment of the IMF's regional office in Riyadh aims to strengthen regional cooperation and technical support for Gulf economies. Traders should monitor oil price trends, GCC economic reforms, and global inflation data for potential market-moving signals in 2024.
