Article details
S&P Global Ratings has described the US-Iran Hormuz Strait agreement as a fragile first step toward normalizing oil shipments through the critical waterway. While the framework aligns with its base-case scenario for a gradual recovery, the agency projects that second-half 2026 shipping volumes will only reach 75% of pre-war levels, with full normalization unlikely until 2027. Key obstacles include infrastructure damage, insurance constraints, and lingering geopolitical risks. The agreement's durability will depend on enforceable safe-passage mechanisms and progress in resolving Iran's nuclear program and proxy conflicts. For markets, the news introduces uncertainty in crude prices, as the geopolitical premium remains embedded despite the deal. Traders should monitor upcoming negotiations on Iran's nuclear activities and regional proxy networks, which could trigger market reversals. S&P warns that oil prices may remain elevated due to suppressed supply flows, impacting energy-linked assets and global inflation dynamics.
