Article details
TD Securities analyst Bart Melek highlights that weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data and reduced likelihood of a 2026 Federal Reserve rate hike have pushed gold prices above $4,100 per ounce. The bank forecasts gold to approach $4,280 in the near term, with critical support near $3,900 expected to hold. This development reflects shifting market expectations about U.S. monetary policy, as lower rate hike probabilities reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold.
For traders, this analysis underscores gold’s role as a safe-haven asset amid economic uncertainty. The Fed’s dovish stance and potential policy easing could further bolster gold’s appeal, especially if inflation remains sticky. However, the path to $4,280 depends on sustained weakness in U.S. economic data and continued Fed inaction. Traders should monitor upcoming nonfarm payrolls and Fed officials’ comments for confirmation of this trend.
The implications for global markets are significant, as gold often moves inversely to U.S. interest rates. For Gulf investors, this could mean increased demand for gold as a hedge against currency volatility and geopolitical risks. Key levels to watch include $4,280 as a resistance target and $3,900 as a critical support. A breakdown below $3,900 could signal renewed bearishness, while a sustained move above $4,280 might attract further institutional buying.
