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WTI crude oil prices surged to a six-month high amid rising tensions between the US and Iran, with military movements and a 30% probability of an attack within 10 days per Polymarket. US stock markets rallied as AI-related fears eased, while FOMC minutes reinforced expectations of a hawkish Federal Reserve. The geopolitical risk premium is pushing investors toward energy assets, while equity markets remain sensitive to both war fears and central bank policy shifts. This dual dynamic could widen volatility in commodities and equities in the coming weeks.
