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Societe Generale's Kit Juckes forecasts a range-bound EUR/USD amid geopolitical tensions and US policy uncertainties, which counterbalance economic fundamentals. He highlights that two-year rate differentials suggest a trading range of 1.14–1.17, while consensus GDP projections align with 1.14 as a fair level. The analysis underscores the delicate balance between European and US monetary policies, with the ECB's cautious stance and the Fed's potential rate cuts creating a stalemate.
For traders, this scenario implies limited directional bias, encouraging strategies focused on volatility within the defined range. The EUR/USD pair may attract attention around key support/resistance levels, particularly if geopolitical risks or central bank interventions shift the equilibrium. However, the lack of clear momentum could dampen speculative activity.
Looking ahead, investors should monitor upcoming Fed and ECB policy statements, as well as regional economic data. A breakout above 1.17 or below 1.14 would signal a shift in market sentiment, potentially unlocking new trading opportunities. For now, the EUR/USD remains a textbook example of a market in equilibrium.
