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ING's Warren Patterson has revised its base case for global energy markets, shifting from an initial assumption of a short-term two-week disruption in the Strait of Hormuz to a longer-term outlook. The bank now anticipates sustained supply constraints due to geopolitical tensions in the region, which could push energy prices higher. This analysis reflects growing concerns over potential escalations in the Gulf, impacting global oil and gas flows. For traders, this shift signals increased volatility in energy markets, particularly for crude oil and natural gas. Higher energy prices could drive inflationary pressures, affecting equity markets and central bank policies. Investors should monitor developments in the Strait of Hormuz and OPEC+ production decisions, as these factors will shape the trajectory of energy prices. The implications for global markets are significant, with energy-dependent economies facing higher input costs. MENA region investors may see mixed effects, as rising oil prices could boost state revenues but also increase domestic energy costs. Key assets to watch include Brent Crude, WTI, and energy sector equities. The next critical data points will be OPEC+ meetings and any military or political developments in the Gulf.
