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Deutsche Bank has revised its gold price forecast downward, citing the Federal Reserve's repricing of monetary policy as a key factor. The bank now targets $2,100 per ounce for gold by year-end, down from $2,300 previously. Analysts attribute the shift to the Fed's tighter policy stance, which has strengthened the U.S. dollar and reduced gold's appeal as an inflation hedge. Higher interest rates also make non-yielding assets like gold less attractive compared to cash or bonds.
This development signals a bearish shift in institutional sentiment toward gold, which could pressure prices in the near term. Traders should monitor the Fed's upcoming policy decisions and inflation data for clues on rate trajectory. A stronger dollar or hawkish signals may further weigh on gold, while a dovish pivot could reverse the trend. Market participants are also watching geopolitical risks and central bank demand for potential support.
For Gulf investors, the Fed's policy remains a critical driver of gold prices. A sustained dollar rally could erode purchasing power in the region, indirectly affecting gold's demand. Traders should watch the USD/TRY and USD/AED pairs for regional implications. Key technical levels to monitor include $2,000 (support) and $2,200 (resistance) for gold.
