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TD Securities' Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali reports a significant decline in unencumbered copper inventories year-to-date, reducing available supply to 9.1 days compared to 11.4 days at the start of 2024. This drop highlights tightening supply dynamics in the global copper market, driven by strong industrial demand and constrained production. The report also notes increased buying activity from Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs), which could amplify price volatility as speculative positions grow. For markets, this scarcity may signal potential supply bottlenecks, particularly in sectors reliant on copper for infrastructure and renewable energy projects. Traders should monitor inventory levels and CTA positioning for further clues on price direction. Looking ahead, investors should watch for policy shifts in copper-producing regions like Chile and Peru, as well as geopolitical risks affecting mining operations. The Gulf's expanding manufacturing sector could also influence regional demand, making this a critical asset for MENA investors.
