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Commerzbank analyst Barbara Lambrecht highlights that China's manufacturing PMI rose above 50 in April, signaling expansion and boosting copper demand through AI-driven exports. However, the LMEX index remains under pressure due to lingering US-China trade tensions and potential tariff risks. The mixed signals create uncertainty for copper prices, which are sensitive to both macroeconomic data and geopolitical developments.
For traders, the PMI data underscores China's role as a key driver of global copper demand, while US tariff threats add volatility. Copper's performance will likely hinge on whether China's economic recovery sustains and how trade negotiations evolve. Market participants should monitor upcoming PMI releases and US-China diplomatic updates.
Investors in the Gulf and MENA region, with significant exposure to commodities, should watch for spillover effects from global trade dynamics. The interplay between China's industrial activity and US policy decisions could influence regional commodity portfolios. Key watchpoints include May PMI data and any shifts in tariff rhetoric.
