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Citigroup has raised its 0–3 month price target for aluminum to $3,600 per metric ton, citing improved supply dynamics and robust demand from construction and automotive sectors. The bank attributes the upward revision to ongoing supply constraints in key producing regions and strong industrial activity in China, the world’s largest consumer of aluminum. This marks a 7% increase from its previous target of $3,350, reflecting heightened confidence in the metal’s near-term performance. The upgrade signals growing optimism in the commodities market, particularly for base metals. Traders should monitor upcoming data on Chinese manufacturing PMI and global aluminum production figures, as these could validate or challenge Citi’s bullish outlook. Additionally, energy prices and carbon credit costs—key drivers of aluminum production costs—will remain critical variables for price momentum. For Gulf investors, the outlook is particularly relevant given the region’s significant aluminum production capacity and export reliance. Saudi Arabia’s National Aluminum Company (Alcoa Arabia) and UAE-based Emirates Global Aluminium are likely to benefit from sustained high prices. Market participants should watch for policy shifts in China’s infrastructure spending and potential supply disruptions in Australia and Brazil.
