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Veteran strategist Ed Yardeni has increased his forecast for a U.S. stock market crash in 2024, citing rising oil prices above $100, a stronger U.S. dollar, and escalating geopolitical tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia. He now estimates a 35% probability of a market meltdown, up from previous levels. The dollar’s weekly gains and oil’s surge reflect investor flight to safety amid regional conflicts and economic uncertainty. Bitcoin, which often correlates with risk-off sentiment, faces downward pressure as market participants brace for potential volatility. This development is critical for traders monitoring crypto markets, as Bitcoin’s price is closely tied to macroeconomic factors like the dollar’s strength and global risk appetite. A weaker equity market could drive more capital into safe-haven assets, potentially boosting gold and the dollar while hurting Bitcoin. However, the inverse relationship between equities and crypto may not hold if central banks intervene to stabilize markets. For MENA investors, the interplay between oil prices, dollar strength, and geopolitical risks in the Gulf could amplify Bitcoin’s volatility. Key watchpoints include OPEC+ policy decisions, U.S. Federal Reserve actions, and the trajectory of the Iran-Saudi conflict. Traders should monitor Bitcoin’s support levels and the dollar’s performance against the euro and yen.
