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The AUD/USD pair continued its decline from 0.7277 last week, with no clear signs of a bottom forming despite weakening momentum observed in the 4-hour MACD indicator. Technical analysis suggests further downward movement is likely as long as the 0.6977 support level holds as resistance. A retest of the 0.6832 support level is expected next, with a firm break below this level potentially targeting the 0.6756 Fibonacci retracement level. Broader market context indicates that the pair remains under pressure from global economic factors and central bank policies.
For traders, the breakdown of key support levels could signal continued bearish momentum in the near term. The 4-hour MACD's loss of momentum suggests a lack of buying interest, which may deter short-term bullish positions. However, volatility around critical Fibonacci levels could create opportunities for range-bound trading strategies. The pair's performance is closely tied to commodity prices and risk-on/risk-off sentiment, making it sensitive to broader market shifts.
The outlook for AUD/USD hinges on whether the 0.6977-0.6832 corridor holds as a psychological barrier. A sustained break below 0.6756 could open the door to further declines toward 0.6600. Traders should monitor the RBA's policy stance and global risk appetite, particularly in the Gulf region where AUD exposure is significant. Key watchpoints include the 4-hour and daily MACD for momentum shifts and volume patterns at critical support/resistance levels.
