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ING analysts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson report that aluminium supply risks have escalated following attacks on Emirates Global Aluminium’s Al Taweelah smelter and Aluminium Bahrain’s plant. These incidents, attributed to Iranian actions, have disrupted production at two of the world’s largest aluminium producers, accounting for over 10% of global output. The attacks highlight vulnerabilities in Gulf infrastructure and raise concerns about energy security in the region.
The disruption could push global aluminium prices higher, impacting industries reliant on the metal, such as construction and automotive. For traders, this event underscores the sensitivity of commodity markets to geopolitical tensions. The US Dollar and Gulf equities may face pressure as investors reassess risk appetite amid regional instability. Additionally, energy prices could rise if supply chain disruptions persist.
Looking ahead, markets will closely monitor production recovery timelines and any retaliatory measures from Gulf producers. Investors should also track developments in Iran’s strategic posture and potential sanctions. The incident reinforces the importance of diversifying supply chains and hedging against geopolitical risks in commodity trading.
