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Bitcoin's 2024 halving cycle is showing weaker price performance compared to historical patterns, according to Galaxy Digital analyst Alex Thorn. Historical data shows declining volatility and upside in each halving cycle, with the 2024 event underperforming both the 2020 and 2016 cycles. Thorn suggests these dynamics may not be permanent, but current market conditions such as macroeconomic uncertainty and regulatory scrutiny could be influencing the trend. For traders, this highlights the need to reassess traditional halving-based investment strategies, as the asset's price behavior is becoming less predictable. The evolving market structure, including increased institutional participation and ETF approvals, may be altering the historical relationship between halvings and price action. Investors should monitor upcoming macroeconomic data and regulatory developments, which could either reinforce or reverse the current underperformance pattern.
