الأسواق تترقب قرار الفدرالي برفع الفائدة

بواسطة: Thaer

ينتظر المستثمرون في جميع فئات الأصول بحذر الحدث الأساسي لهذا الأسبوع، ألا وهو القرار الخاص بالسياسة النقدية من الاحتياطي الفدرالي.

فالأسواق شبه متيقّنة من أنّ الفدرالي سيرفع الفائدة بواقع 25 نقطة أساس في وقت لاحق اليوم، ممّا يدلّ على أنّ رفع الفائدة محتسب أصلاً. لكنّ التركيز سينصبّ على البيان الصادر والتوقعات الاقتصادية، وجدول نقاط عمليات رفع الفائدة المتوقعة (دوت بلوت)، وجلسة الأسئلة والإجابات مع جاي باول.

ومن المرجّح أن تخضع التوقعات الاقتصادية للتعديل بعد أن وقّع الرئيس ترامب على قانون لإصلاح الضرائب بقيمة 1.5 ترليون دولار في ديسمبر/ كانون الأول الماضي. وهذا الأمر يجب أن ينعكس في توقعات الناتج المحلي الإجمالي للعامين 2018 و2019، ولكن من الصعب تخمين حجم التغيّر. وعلى المنوال ذاته من المرجّح لتوقعات التضخّم والبطالة أن تحدّث بناءً على توقعات ديسمبر/ كانون الأول الماضي. لكنّ السؤال الأساسي يظل هو كيف يؤثّر هذا التغيّر على تشديد السياسة النقدية في العامين المقبلين؟

ستنعكس الإجابة عن هذا السؤال في جدول نقاط عمليات رفع الفائدة المتوقعة (دوت بلوت)، وهنا يكمن الانقسام الأكبر بين معظم صفوف المشاركين في الأسواق ممّا يجعل التداول بناءً على قرارات الفدرالي عملية غير واضحة. فآخر جدول للنقاط صدر في اجتماع ديسمبر/ كانون يُظهر ثلاث عمليات رفع للفائدة في 2018، تليها عمليتا رفع في 2019، مع الوصول إلى نطاق للفائدة بين 3 و3.5% بحلول 2020. وأي تعديل في جدول النقاط يتضمّن زيادة في عدد عمليات الرفع سواء على المدى القصير أو الطويل سوف يترك تبعاته على الأسواق، وخاصّة الدولار الذي يسير في مسار هابط منذ أواخر 2016.

وإذا أظهر جدول النقاط بأنّ صنّاع السياسة النقدية يدعمون أربع عمليات رفع للفائدة في 2018 عوضاً عن ثلاث، فإنّ الدولار قد يحلق بنسبة 1 إلى 2% مقابل نظرائه. وهناك أمر آخر قد يعطي دعماً كبيراً ألا وهو رفع التوقعات البعيدة المدى لمعدّلات الفائدة التي تقف حالياً عند 2.8%. ومن المرجّح أن يقود ذلك إلى كسر لحاجز 3% في عوائد سند العشر سنوات الأميركي. وأي تحرّك حاد في عوائد السندات يجب أن يُراقب عن كثب بما أنّ الكثير من المستثمرين يشيرون إلى نسبة 3% بوصفها المستوى الحرج بالنسبة لأسواق الأسهم. فهذا هو الحد الذي تصبح عنده تكلفة التمويل بالنسبة للشركات باهظة وهو سيجذب دببة الأسهم المراهنين على هبوطها إلى بيع أسهمهم.

السيناريو الأساسي المناقض هو عدم حصول تغيير في توقعات رفع الفائدة، وبالتالي سيلتزم الفدرالي ببيانه السابق: "المخاطر التي تهدّد التوقعات الاقتصادية على المدى القصير تعتبر متوازنة عموماً، لكنّ اللجنة سوف تراقب التطوّرات الحاصلة في التضخّم عن كثب". وتدعم البيانات الاقتصادية الصادرة مؤخراً هذا التقويم، وخاصّة بعد أن كانت مبيعات المنازل والتجزئة مخيّبة للآمال في الآونة الأخيرة، وبطبيعة الحال، فإنّ الفدرالي سيأخذ بحسبانه خطر اندلاع حرب تجارية. وبموجب هذا السيناريو، فإنني أتوقع تواصل هبوط الدولار على المدى القصير.

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