التقرير الصباحي على أسواق الفوركس

بواسطة: Thaer

انتقلت الخسائر الحادّة في أسهم شركات التكنولوجيا الأميركية إلى الأسواق الآسيوية اليوم حيث سارت كل المؤشرات الرئيسية على خطى وول ستريت في تسجيل التراجعات. وقد تصدّرت شركة فيسبوك العناوين يوم الاثنين بعد أن ظهرت تقارير إعلامية خلال عطلة نهاية الأسبوع زعمت بأنّ بيانات 50 مليون مستخدم قد استعملت دون موافقة أصحابها. وقد تراجع السهم 6.8% ممّا شطب ما يقارب 37 مليار دولار من قيمتها السوقية. ولا شكّ في أنّ هذه الأخبار سوف تخيف المعلنين، وخاصّة إذا قادت الجهات الناظمة إلى تغيير النموذج التجاري لشركة فيسبوك، ممّا قد يؤثّر على إيرادات الشركة.

ولا يجب على المستثمرين أن يقلقوا بشأن التراجع في سهم فيسبوك فقط، وإنما أيضاً أسهم شركات آبل وأمازون ونتفليكس وغوغل المعروفة اختصاراً مع فيسبوك باسم (FAANG) التي كانت تقود السوق الصاعد منذ عدّة سنوات. فقد تراجع سهم ألفابيت 3% البارحة، في حين تراجعت أسهم آبل ونتفليكس وأمازون 1.53% و1.56% و1.7% على التوالي. ورغم أنّ التراجع في سهم فيسبوك ربما يكون قد أثّر سلباً على القطاع، إلا أنّ ذلك لا يعطي تفسيراً كاملاً للوضع. فالمخاوف الموجود من أن تفرض المفوّضية الأوروبية ضرائب جديدة على شركات التكنولوجيا كإجراء انتقامي ردّاً على التعرفة الجمركية التي فرضتها الولايات المتّحدة الأميركية على الألمنيوم والصلب هي إشارة مبكّرة على أنّ الحرب التجارية يجب أن تؤخذ بجدّية أكبر. فإذا ما قرّرت الأسواق الانقلاب على أسهم (FAANG) التكنولوجية هذه، فإننا سنرى على الأغلب رد فعل مشابه لرد الفعل الذي حصل على التصحيح في فبراير/ شباط الماضي.

الفدرالي بقيادة جاي باول وجدول النقاط

سيعقد رئيس الفدرالي المعيّن حديثاً جاي باول مؤتمره الصحفي الأول يوم غد حيث من المتوقع أن يرفع البنك المركزي الأميركي معدّلات الفائدة للمرّة الأولى في 2018. وكانت الأسواق قد احتسبت بالكامل رفعاً للفائدة بـ 25 نقطة أساس وليس من المتوقع أن يؤثّر ذلك أبداً على اتجاه حركة الدولار.

الأمر الأساسي بالنسبة للدولار هو كيف سيتصرّف مسؤولو الفدرالي بقيادة الرئيس الجديد بناءً على البيانات الاقتصادية الصادرة مؤخراً، وما إذا كان التحفيز المالي سيقود في نهاية المطاف إلى سياسة نقدية أكثر تشدّداً في 2018. وهناك انقسام بين المشاركين في السوق فيما إذا كان الفدرالي سوف يتوقّع أربع عمليات رفع للفائدة في 2018 مقارنة مع ثلاث عمليات رفع كان قد توقّعها في اجتماعه الأخير. وأي زيادة في عدد النقاط على جدول نقاط عمليات الرفع المتوقعة يجب أن تدعم الدولار رغم أنّ ذلك من المرجّح أن يقود إلى المزيد من التسطّح في منحنى عوائد سندات الخزانة الأميركية.

الصفقة الانتقالية للبريكست تدفع الإسترليني إلى الأعلى

كان الإسترليني العملة الأفضل أداءً يوم الاثنين حيث ارتفع 0.6% مقابل الدولار الأميركي ليعود ويتداول فوق مستوى 1.40. وقد كان الاعتقاد سائداً بأنّ وجود صفقة بريكست سيكون أكثر إيجابية بالنسبة للاسترليني، ولكن بما أنّه لم يتمّ التوصّل إلى اتفاق بخصوص الحدود الإيرلندية فإن ذلك شكّل سقفاً يحدّ من المكاسب. وأنا أعتقد بأنّ الإسترليني لازال يتمتّع ببعض المجال للارتفاع مقابل العملات الرئيسية الأخرى وخاصّة إذا وفّر مؤشر أسعار المستهلكين اليوم وبيانات الأجور غداً علامات جديدة على وجود ضغوط تضخّمية قبيل اجتماع بنك إنكلترا المركزي يوم الخميس.

الرابط الدائم

هل تمتلك حساب في واحدة من الشركات المعتمدة والموثوقة لدينا؟

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