التقرير الصباحي على أسواق الفوركس

بواسطة: Thaer

تمكّنت بيانات الوظائف الأميركية الصادرة يوم الجمعة من التخفيف من وقع المخاوف المتعلّقة باندلاع حرب تجارية؛ على الأقل في الوقت الحاضر. فقد شكّلت إضافة 313.000 وظيفة مفاجأة للاقتصاديين والأسواق بما أنها تجاوزت أعلى التوقعات حتى والتي وضعها المحللون الذين استطلعت وكالة رويترز آراءهم وتوقعوا تسجيل 300 ألف وظيفة. ورغم أنّ الموظفين قد لا تعجبهم الزيادة التي لم تتجاوز 0.1% في المعدّل الوسطي للأجور الساعية، إلا أن أصحاب الشركات يحبّذون هذا الشيء، والأسواق أيضاً أحبّته. ويعود السبب في ذلك ببساطة إلى أنّ الزيادة الطفيفة في نمو الأجور تشير إلى أنّ الاحتياطي الفدرالي سيضطر إلى مواصلة التعامل مع بعض الضعف في سوق العمل، ممّا يبقي الفدرالي على مسار رفع الفائدة لثلاث مرّات عوضاً عن أربع مرّات في 2018. وفي جميع الأحوال، فإن مزيج البيانات الاقتصادية القوية والتضخّم المحدود كان العامل الأساسي الذي أبقى الثيران في السوق على قيد الحياة.

وقد ارتفع مؤشر ناسداك المركّب إلى رقم قياسي جديد بعد صدور بيانات الوظائف غير الزراعية يوم الجمعة. كما أنّ مؤشر (S&P 500) بات 10% أعلى من أدنى نقطة سجّلها يوم 9 فبراير/شباط، بينما لا تُظهر أسواق الدخل الثابت أيّ علامات على القلق حيث ظل عائد سند الخزانة الأميركي لأجل 10 سنوات أدنى من المستوى الحرج 3% بكثير.

وانتقلت شهيّة المخاطرة إلى الأسواق الآسيوية اليوم حيث ارتفعت مؤشرات (نيكاي 225) و(هانغ سينغ) و(كوسبي) جميعها أكثر من 1%. كما تشير العقود الآجلة أيضاً إلى انطلاقة إيجابية في أوروبا اليوم.

وكانت هناك عوامل أخرى عزّزت شهية المخاطرة الأسبوع الماضي وهي قبول الرئيس ترامب الاجتماع مع رئيس كوريا الشمالية كيم جونغ أون، وإن كنت أعتقد بأنّ ذلك لا يغيّر قواعد اللعبة بالنسبة للمستثمرين في الأسهم. كما أنّ الأخبار الواردة يوم الجمعة من أنّ أميركا قد فتحت الباب أمام المزيد من الإعفاءات من تعرفتها الجمركية المفروضة على الألمنيوم والصلب ربما تكون قد بعثت بإشارات بأنّنا لازلنا بعيدين عن حرب تجارية شاملة. ولكن يبدو الآن من أنّ هدف ترامب هو ليس كندا، ولا المكسيك، ولا الاتحاد الأوروبي بل الصين. فقد قال وزير التجارة الصيني زونغ شان بأنّ بلاده لا تريد حرباً تجارية ولن تشنّ هكذا حرب، لكنّه حذّر من أنّ أي حرب مع الولايات المتّحدة ستكون كارثية بالنسبة للاقتصاد العالمي.

وسوف تخضع البيانات الاقتصادية الأميركية الصادرة هذا الأسبوع للمراقبة الدقيقة، وخاصة بيانات مؤشر التضخّم لشهر فبراير/ شباط لأنّها تأتي قبل أيّام فقط من اجتماع الاحتياطي الفدرالي. ومن المتوقع أن تكون أسعار المستهلكين قد تراجعت قليلاً الشهر الماضي بعد أن كانت قد حلّقت بنسبة 0.5% في يناير/ كانون الثاني، لكنّ مؤشر التضخم الرئيسي لازال من المنتظر أن يرتفع 2.2% على أساس سنوي من 2.1%. ومن المرجّح أن يولي المستثمرون اهتماماً أكبر لمؤشر التضخّم الأساسي، وإذا ظل ثابتاً عند 1.8% فلن يكون هناك سبب للاعتقاد بأنّ الفدرالي سيتّخذ موقفاً متشدّداً عندما يجتمع يومي 20 و21 مارس/ آذار.

من المتوقع أن تسجّل مبيعات التجزئة ارتداداً إيجابياً بعد أن تراجعت لشهرين على التوالي. فإذا ارتفعت كما هو متوقع بنسبة 0.3%، فإنّ ذلك قد يشير إلى أنّ التخفيضات الضريبية قد بدأت أخيراً تشجّع المستهلكين على التوفير الأقل والإنفاق الأكبر. 

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3/26/2018

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