التقرير الصباحي على أسواق الفوركس

بواسطة: Thaer

 

من المرجّح أن تسجّل أسواق الأسهم العالمية هبوطاً يوم الإثنين بما أنّ المخاوف من اندلاع حرب تجارية عالمية مستمرّة في الضغط على معنويات المستثمرين. وقد جاء الردّ من الاتحاد الأوروبي على تهديدات دونالد ترامب بفرض تعرفة جمركية سريعاً من خلال الدعوة إلى اجتماع هذا الأسبوع لمناقشة اتخاذ تدابير حمائية في حال مضت الولايات المتحدة قدماً وفرضت تعرفة جمركية على الفولاذ و الألمنيوم. ومن المنتظر أن يردّ رئيس المفوضية الأوروبية جان كلود يونيكر من خلال فرض تدابير مضادّة على الولايات المتّحدة، وعلى المنوال ذاتّه هدّدت كندا والصين برد معاكس.

وأتوقّع لهذا النزاع على التجارة أن يكون فوضوياً وأن يتسبّب بتقلّبات في أسواق الأسهم، والدخل الثابت، والعملات على المدى القصير. ولكنّني أؤمن بأنّه احتمال انتهاء هذه المسألة بتدابير أقل حمائية من الاتحاد الأوروبي والصين أعلى من احتمال سياسات حمائية إضافية من الولايات المتحدة. ففي نهاية المطاف، ليس هناك من منتصر في أيّ حرب تجارية على المدى البعيد، وصنّاع السياسات يعلمون ذلك جيداً. وحتّى نصل إلى تلك اللحظة، أتوقّع رؤية المزيد من العمليات البيعية في أسواق الأسهم والدخل الثابت، بحيث يكون المستفيد الأكبر هما الين الياباني والذهب.

ولم يحصل اليورو على الدعم بعد أن صوّت الحزب الديمقراطي الاجتماعي على اتفاقية للائتلاف مع حزب الاتحاد الديموقراطي المسيحي برئاسة ميركل. ويعود السبب الرئيسي في ضعف رد فعل اليورو إلى المخاوف المتعلقة بنتائج الانتخابات الإيطالية والتي أفضت إلى برلمان معلّق. وسوف يضطر الاتحاد الأوروبي إلى التعامل مع صداع جديد إذا شكّلت إيطاليا ائتلافاً متشكّكاً باليورو ممّا سيشكّل تحدّياً من دون شك لقواعد الموازنة في الاتحاد الأوروبي. وأتوقع حصول تراجع حاد في الأسهم الإيطالية اليوم.

وبالنسبة للبيانات الاقتصادية، من المرجّح أن تُظهر مؤشرات مديري المشتريات لقطاع الخدمات في منطقة اليورو الصادرة في وقت لاحق اليوم بعض التراجع المشابه لما رأيناه في قطاع التصنيع الأسبوع الماضي، ولكن من غير المرجّح أن تؤثّر الأرقام تأثيراً كبيراً على اليورو.

وهناك الكثير من الأخبار التي يتعيّن على المستثمرين استيعابها هذا الأسبوع.

 

اجتماعات السياسة النقدية

من غير المتوقع أن يُسفر اجتماع البنك المركزي الأوروبي يوم الأربعاء عن أي تغيير في برنامج شراء الأصول أو معدّلات الفائدة. وسوف يركّز المتداولون بصورة رئيسية على اللغة المستعملة في البيان الصادر، وتحديداً أي تغيّرات في السياسة الاسترشادية. وفي ضوء الأداء القوي للتعافي الاقتصادي في منطقة اليورو، فإن العديد من المستثمرين ينتظرون إشارات لتحديد توقيت تخارج البنك المركزي الأوروبي من شراء السندات. وفي هذه المرحلة، أعتقد أنّه لن تصدر إشارات واضحة. ولكن هناك احتمالاً لإزالة فكرة زيادة حجم التيسير الكمّي من البيان. وبالتالي، من المتوقع أن يكون الاجتماع حدثاً إيجابياً نوعاً ما بالنسبة لليورو.

لكنّ البنكين المركزيين الكندي والاسترالي سيجتمعان هذا الأسبوع. ونظراً للتباطؤ الطفيف في البيانات الاقتصادية مؤخراً، فإنني أتوقع أن يحافظ كلا البنكين المركزيين على السياسة النقدية دون تغيير، ومن المرجّح ألا يشكّل الاجتماعان أيّ حدث بالنسبة للمتداولين بالعملات.

 

تقرير الوظائف الأميركية

سوف يراقب المتداولون عن كثب بيانات الوظائف غير الزراعية الأميركية. ورغم أنّ التوقعات تشير إلى أنّ التوظيف سيكون قد سجّل زيادة طفيفة في فبراير/ شباط، وأن تظل البطالة عند 4.1%، إلا أنّ كلا هذين الرقمين سيحظيان بالتجاهل. فمصدر القلق الأساسي بالنسبة للمتداولين هو رقم المعدّل الوسطي للأجور الساعية. فبعد أن زادت الأجور بأسرع وتيرة منذ عقد من الزمن، من المتوقع أن تتراجع 0.4% على أساس سنوي. وإذا صحّ ذلك، فإنّ المخاوف السابقة من التضخّم والتي تسبّبت بالهبوط الحاد في أسواق الأسهم في بداية فبراير/ شباط سوف تتراجع على الأغلب.

الرابط الدائم

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3/26/2018

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