التقرير الصباحي على أسواق الفوركس

بواسطة: Thaer

 

الدولار الأمريكي 

 

ارتفع الدولار الأمريكي أمام سلة من العملات الرئيسية اليوم الخميس قبيل الجلسة الثانية  للشهادة التي سيدلي بها رئيس البنك المركزي الأمريكي جيروم باول في وقت لاحق اليوم أمام اللجنة المصرفية لمجلس الشيوخ.

وأدت التصريحات المتفائلة التي تصب في اتجاه التشديد النقدي إلى زيادة تكهنات السوق بأن البنك المركزي الأمريكي سيقوم برفع أسعار الفائدة أربع مرات هذا العام – مما يؤدي في نهاية المطاف إلى دعم الدولار الأمريكي. ويمكن أن تكتسب توقعات السوق برفع أسعار الفائدة مزيدًا من القوة إذا سارت تصريحات الرئيس الجديد للبنك المركزي الأمريكي اليوم في نفس مسار التصريحات المتفائلة برفع أسعار الفائدة والتي تم الإدلاء بها في وقت سابق هذا الأسبوع.

 

الاسترليني 

انهار تفاؤل السوق بشأن "خروج ناعم لبريطانيا من الاتحاد الأوروبي" انهيارًا حادًا يوم الأربعاء في أعقاب قيام الاتحاد الأوروبي بنشر مسودة لاتفاق خروج بريطانيا من الاتحاد الأوروبي والتي تدعو ايرلندا الشمالية إلى البقاء في اتحاده الجمركي.

وكانت رئيسة الوزراء البريطانية تيريزا ماي قد رفضت شروط الاتحاد الأوروبي رفضًا قاطعًا وصريحًا، ووصفت مسودة اتفاق خروج بريطانيا من الاتحاد الأوروبي التي تم نشرها أمس بأنها غير مقبولة وتؤدي إلى "تقويض السلامة الدستورية للمملكة المتحدة". وفي ظل أن كبير المفاوضين الأوروبيين، مايكل بارنييه، قد قال إنه لا يمكن ضمان التوصل إلى اتفاق بشأن المرحلة الانتقالية التي تعقب خروج بريطانيا من الاتحاد الأوروبي، من المرجح أن تتصاعد المخاوف بشأن سيناريو "عدم التوصل لاتفاق" فيما يتعلق بخروج بريطانيا من الاتحاد الأوروبي. ويمكن أن يتعرض الجنيه الإسترليني لمزيد من العقاب في الفترة المقبلة، حيث إن استمرار القلق بشأن خروج بريطانيا من الاتحاد الأوروبي ما يزال يؤثر تأثيرًا سلبيًا شديدًا على المعنويات.     

ويمكن أن يتم توجيه بعض الاهتمام إلى تقرير مؤشر مديري المشتريات بقطاع الصناعة التحويلية في بريطانيا الذي صدر يوم الاخميس  ، والذي سجل 55.1 في شهر فبراير. وقد منح الجنيه الإسترليني بعض الدعم الطفيف، ولكن العملة من المرجح أن تظل مهتمة بقدر أكبر بتطورات محادثات خروج بريطانيا من الاتحاد الأوروبي.

 

اليورو 

انخفض اليورو أمام الدولار الأمريكي يوم أمس الأربعاء، في أعقاب تقارير أفادت أن التضخم في منطقة اليورو قد هبط في شهر فبراير إلى 1.2% مسجلاً أدنى مستوياته في 14 شهرًا.

وقد تلقت دببة اليورو حافزًا آخر في صورة الغموض السياسي، بفضل اقتراب الانتخابات الوطنية الإيطالية التي ستعقد يوم الأحد. وفي ظل ارتفاع الدولار بسبب زيادة توقعات رفع أسعار الفائدة في الولايات المتحدة، وجد زوج اليورو/الدولار الأمريكي نفسه تحت ضغوط بيع كثيفة. ومن المنظور الفني، يتحول زوج اليورو/الدولار الأمريكي ليصبح هبوطيًا على الرسم البياني اليومي. ويتم تداول الأسعار أدنى من المتوسط المتحرك البسيط لعدد 50 فترة كما أن مؤشر الماكد قد عبر إلى الجانب السفلي. ويمكن أن يؤدي الاختراق والإغلاق اليومي تحت مستوى 1.2180 إلى تمهيد الطريق أمام الانخفاض إلى مستوى 1.2090. 

 

النفط 

انهار خام غرب تكساس الوسيط مثلما ينهار بيت من ورق يوم أمس في أعقاب الارتفاع الذي فاق التوقعات للمخزون الأمريكي من النفط الخام والبنزين.

وقد أصبح من الواضح أن العامل الذي يقف وراء التحرك الهبوطي لسعر النفط مل يزال يكمن في استمرار المخاوف بشأن زيادة إنتاج النفط الصخري الأمريكي. وفي حين أن البعض ما يزال يواصل الزعم بأن أسعار النفط ما تزال مدعومة بفضل خفض إنتاج منظمة أوبك، ولكن النفط الصخري الأمريكي ما يزال يشكل خطرًا أمام ارتفاع سعر النفط. وبالنظر إلى الصورة الفنية، يتعرض خام غرب تكساس الوسيط لضغوط على الرسم البياني اليومي. ويمكن أن يؤدي استمرار الضعف تحت مستوى 62 دولار إلى تشجيع الهبوط نحو مستوى 60 دولار.

 

الرابط الدائم

هل تمتلك حساب في واحدة من الشركات المعتمدة والموثوقة لدينا؟

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التعليقات ..

kaileyhu

3/26/2018

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